Recent model runs from Météo-France and European ensembles, combined with real-time observations, have locked in a daytime maximum of 27°C at Paris-Le Bourget under stable high pressure, modest southerly warm-air advection, and partly cloudy skies, driving the market-implied probability for that exact outcome near 100%. This aligns with climatological August averages near 24–25°C while reflecting limited afternoon heating from light winds and higher humidity. Trader consensus treats the official station reading as the resolution criterion, with minimal dispersion because forecast uncertainty has narrowed sharply on resolution day. A late unexpected clearing or localized urban heat-island spike could theoretically push the reading to 28°C, though current surface data and model agreement make such shifts improbable before sunset.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Paris on August 18?
Highest temperature in Paris on August 18?
27°C 100.0%
25°C or below <1%
26°C <1%
28°C <1%
$93,211 Vol.
$93,211 Vol.
Aug 18, 2026
25°C or below
No
26°C
No
27°C
Yes
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C or higher
No
27°C 100.0%
25°C or below <1%
26°C <1%
28°C <1%
$93,211 Vol.
$93,211 Vol.
Aug 18, 2026
25°C or below
$15,198 Vol.
No
26°C
$17,648 Vol.
No
27°C
$19,121 Vol.
Yes
28°C
$18,429 Vol.
No
29°C
$15,289 Vol.
No
30°C
$4,437 Vol.
No
31°C
$1,544 Vol.
No
32°C
$311 Vol.
No
33°C
$330 Vol.
No
34°C
$452 Vol.
No
35°C or higher
$452 Vol.
No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model runs from Météo-France and European ensembles, combined with real-time observations, have locked in a daytime maximum of 27°C at Paris-Le Bourget under stable high pressure, modest southerly warm-air advection, and partly cloudy skies, driving the market-implied probability for that exact outcome near 100%. This aligns with climatological August averages near 24–25°C while reflecting limited afternoon heating from light winds and higher humidity. Trader consensus treats the official station reading as the resolution criterion, with minimal dispersion because forecast uncertainty has narrowed sharply on resolution day. A late unexpected clearing or localized urban heat-island spike could theoretically push the reading to 28°C, though current surface data and model agreement make such shifts improbable before sunset.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 16, 2026, 12:55 AM ET
Volume
$93,211End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
Aug 16, 2026, 12:55 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model runs from Météo-France and European ensembles, combined with real-time observations, have locked in a daytime maximum of 27°C at Paris-Le Bourget under stable high pressure, modest southerly warm-air advection, and partly cloudy skies, driving the market-implied probability for that exact outcome near 100%. This aligns with climatological August averages near 24–25°C while reflecting limited afternoon heating from light winds and higher humidity. Trader consensus treats the official station reading as the resolution criterion, with minimal dispersion because forecast uncertainty has narrowed sharply on resolution day. A late unexpected clearing or localized urban heat-island spike could theoretically push the reading to 28°C, though current surface data and model agreement make such shifts improbable before sunset.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$93,211End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
Aug 16, 2026, 12:55 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Recent model runs from Météo-France and European ensembles, combined with real-time observations, have locked in a daytime maximum of 27°C at Paris-Le Bourget under stable high pressure, modest southerly warm-air advection, and partly cloudy skies, driving the market-implied probability for that exact outcome near 100%. This aligns with climatological August averages near 24–25°C while reflecting limited afternoon heating from light winds and higher humidity. Trader consensus treats the official station reading as the resolution criterion, with minimal dispersion because forecast uncertainty has narrowed sharply on resolution day. A late unexpected clearing or localized urban heat-island spike could theoretically push the reading to 28°C, though current surface data and model agreement make such shifts improbable before sunset.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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