Official National Weather Service observations from Central Park—the standard station for New York City highs—confirm the maximum temperature reached 60°F on May 11, 2026, at approximately 5:51 p.m., driving trader consensus to 100% implied probability on the 60-61°F outcome. Persistent cloud cover and a stable boundary layer, as noted in post-event summaries, suppressed heating below pre-event forecast models projecting mid-60s peaks, well under the climatological May 11 normal of 70°F. This verified measurement aligns with hourly data releases, leaving minimal uncertainty. Realistic challenges would require a rare data revision from NWS quality controls, such as sensor recalibration, though such adjustments post-preliminary reports are exceptional. No further updates expected as the market nears resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in NYC on May 11?
Highest temperature in NYC on May 11?
60-61°F 100.0%
53°F or below <1%
54-55°F <1%
56-57°F <1%
$159,803 Vol.
$159,803 Vol.
May 11, 2026
53°F or below
No
54-55°F
No
56-57°F
No
58-59°F
No
60-61°F
Yes
62-63°F
No
64-65°F
No
66-67°F
No
68-69°F
No
70-71°F
No
72°F or higher
No
60-61°F 100.0%
53°F or below <1%
54-55°F <1%
56-57°F <1%
$159,803 Vol.
$159,803 Vol.
May 11, 2026
53°F or below
$2,149 Vol.
No
54-55°F
$2,235 Vol.
No
56-57°F
$1,849 Vol.
No
58-59°F
$6,321 Vol.
No
60-61°F
$46,135 Vol.
Yes
62-63°F
$28,054 Vol.
No
64-65°F
$17,810 Vol.
No
66-67°F
$15,249 Vol.
No
68-69°F
$10,014 Vol.
No
70-71°F
$21,165 Vol.
No
72°F or higher
$8,821 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official National Weather Service observations from Central Park—the standard station for New York City highs—confirm the maximum temperature reached 60°F on May 11, 2026, at approximately 5:51 p.m., driving trader consensus to 100% implied probability on the 60-61°F outcome. Persistent cloud cover and a stable boundary layer, as noted in post-event summaries, suppressed heating below pre-event forecast models projecting mid-60s peaks, well under the climatological May 11 normal of 70°F. This verified measurement aligns with hourly data releases, leaving minimal uncertainty. Realistic challenges would require a rare data revision from NWS quality controls, such as sensor recalibration, though such adjustments post-preliminary reports are exceptional. No further updates expected as the market nears resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 9, 2026, 8:56 AM ET
Volume
$159,803End Date
May 11, 2026Market Opened
May 9, 2026, 8:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official National Weather Service observations from Central Park—the standard station for New York City highs—confirm the maximum temperature reached 60°F on May 11, 2026, at approximately 5:51 p.m., driving trader consensus to 100% implied probability on the 60-61°F outcome. Persistent cloud cover and a stable boundary layer, as noted in post-event summaries, suppressed heating below pre-event forecast models projecting mid-60s peaks, well under the climatological May 11 normal of 70°F. This verified measurement aligns with hourly data releases, leaving minimal uncertainty. Realistic challenges would require a rare data revision from NWS quality controls, such as sensor recalibration, though such adjustments post-preliminary reports are exceptional. No further updates expected as the market nears resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$159,803End Date
May 11, 2026Market Opened
May 9, 2026, 8:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Official National Weather Service observations from Central Park—the standard station for New York City highs—confirm the maximum temperature reached 60°F on May 11, 2026, at approximately 5:51 p.m., driving trader consensus to 100% implied probability on the 60-61°F outcome. Persistent cloud cover and a stable boundary layer, as noted in post-event summaries, suppressed heating below pre-event forecast models projecting mid-60s peaks, well under the climatological May 11 normal of 70°F. This verified measurement aligns with hourly data releases, leaving minimal uncertainty. Realistic challenges would require a rare data revision from NWS quality controls, such as sensor recalibration, though such adjustments post-preliminary reports are exceptional. No further updates expected as the market nears resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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