National Weather Service observations from Central Park and Kennedy Airport recorded a maximum temperature of 81°F on August 16, 2026, with the peak occurring near 12:43 p.m. under partly sunny skies and moderate southerly flow typical of mid-August climatology. This official measurement aligns precisely with the 80-81°F bracket now carrying 100% market-implied probability, reflecting trader consensus grounded in verified surface data rather than forecast models. Historical Central Park averages near 83°F and the absence of strong high-pressure ridging or heat advection further supported this outcome over warmer or cooler brackets. While final resolution hinges on any post-event quality-control adjustments by the National Weather Service, scenarios that could shift the market include revised station reports or boundary-layer reanalysis, though such changes remain rare once preliminary maxima are confirmed.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in NYC on August 16?
Highest temperature in NYC on August 16?
80-81°F 100.0%
71°F or below <1%
72-73°F <1%
74-75°F <1%
$99,965 Vol.
$99,965 Vol.
Aug 16, 2026
71°F or below
No
72-73°F
No
74-75°F
No
76-77°F
No
78-79°F
No
80-81°F
Yes
82-83°F
No
84-85°F
No
86-87°F
No
88-89°F
No
90°F or higher
No
80-81°F 100.0%
71°F or below <1%
72-73°F <1%
74-75°F <1%
$99,965 Vol.
$99,965 Vol.
Aug 16, 2026
71°F or below
$211 Vol.
No
72-73°F
$214 Vol.
No
74-75°F
$25,379 Vol.
No
76-77°F
$19,819 Vol.
No
78-79°F
$11,595 Vol.
No
80-81°F
$15,602 Vol.
Yes
82-83°F
$12,082 Vol.
No
84-85°F
$7,501 Vol.
No
86-87°F
$4,918 Vol.
No
88-89°F
$2,062 Vol.
No
90°F or higher
$582 Vol.
No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.National Weather Service observations from Central Park and Kennedy Airport recorded a maximum temperature of 81°F on August 16, 2026, with the peak occurring near 12:43 p.m. under partly sunny skies and moderate southerly flow typical of mid-August climatology. This official measurement aligns precisely with the 80-81°F bracket now carrying 100% market-implied probability, reflecting trader consensus grounded in verified surface data rather than forecast models. Historical Central Park averages near 83°F and the absence of strong high-pressure ridging or heat advection further supported this outcome over warmer or cooler brackets. While final resolution hinges on any post-event quality-control adjustments by the National Weather Service, scenarios that could shift the market include revised station reports or boundary-layer reanalysis, though such changes remain rare once preliminary maxima are confirmed.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 15, 2026, 4:01 PM ET
Volume
$99,965End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 15, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.National Weather Service observations from Central Park and Kennedy Airport recorded a maximum temperature of 81°F on August 16, 2026, with the peak occurring near 12:43 p.m. under partly sunny skies and moderate southerly flow typical of mid-August climatology. This official measurement aligns precisely with the 80-81°F bracket now carrying 100% market-implied probability, reflecting trader consensus grounded in verified surface data rather than forecast models. Historical Central Park averages near 83°F and the absence of strong high-pressure ridging or heat advection further supported this outcome over warmer or cooler brackets. While final resolution hinges on any post-event quality-control adjustments by the National Weather Service, scenarios that could shift the market include revised station reports or boundary-layer reanalysis, though such changes remain rare once preliminary maxima are confirmed.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$99,965End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 15, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
National Weather Service observations from Central Park and Kennedy Airport recorded a maximum temperature of 81°F on August 16, 2026, with the peak occurring near 12:43 p.m. under partly sunny skies and moderate southerly flow typical of mid-August climatology. This official measurement aligns precisely with the 80-81°F bracket now carrying 100% market-implied probability, reflecting trader consensus grounded in verified surface data rather than forecast models. Historical Central Park averages near 83°F and the absence of strong high-pressure ridging or heat advection further supported this outcome over warmer or cooler brackets. While final resolution hinges on any post-event quality-control adjustments by the National Weather Service, scenarios that could shift the market include revised station reports or boundary-layer reanalysis, though such changes remain rare once preliminary maxima are confirmed.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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