**Trader consensus on 28°C as Munich’s August 7 maximum rests on the German Weather Service (DWD) official station reading, which recorded that exact high.** Pre-event forecasts from DWD, ECMWF, and regional models converged on a peak near 28°C under clear, stable high-pressure conditions with light winds, consistent with typical late-summer Munich climatology (long-term August daytime maxima average 23–25°C). The 99.8% market-implied probability reflects real-money aggregation of this verified observational data, leaving minimal room for revision. The only realistic challenges would be a post-hoc quality-control adjustment by DWD, use of an alternate station with a slightly different microclimate reading, or an undetected instrument issue—none of which has materialized in the initial reporting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Munich on August 7?
Highest temperature in Munich on August 7?
28°C 99.8%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$193,905 Vol.
$193,905 Vol.
Aug 7, 2026
21°C or below
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
Yes
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C or higher
No
28°C 99.8%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$193,905 Vol.
$193,905 Vol.
Aug 7, 2026
21°C or below
$7,259 Vol.
No
22°C
$1,719 Vol.
No
23°C
$6,596 Vol.
No
24°C
$7,037 Vol.
No
25°C
$12,648 Vol.
No
26°C
$20,147 Vol.
No
27°C
$35,986 Vol.
No
28°C
$28,367 Vol.
Yes
29°C
$34,583 Vol.
No
30°C
$31,578 Vol.
No
31°C or higher
$7,985 Vol.
No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus on 28°C as Munich’s August 7 maximum rests on the German Weather Service (DWD) official station reading, which recorded that exact high.** Pre-event forecasts from DWD, ECMWF, and regional models converged on a peak near 28°C under clear, stable high-pressure conditions with light winds, consistent with typical late-summer Munich climatology (long-term August daytime maxima average 23–25°C). The 99.8% market-implied probability reflects real-money aggregation of this verified observational data, leaving minimal room for revision.
The only realistic challenges would be a post-hoc quality-control adjustment by DWD, use of an alternate station with a slightly different microclimate reading, or an undetected instrument issue—none of which has materialized in the initial reporting.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 5, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$193,905End Date
Aug 7, 2026Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus on 28°C as Munich’s August 7 maximum rests on the German Weather Service (DWD) official station reading, which recorded that exact high.** Pre-event forecasts from DWD, ECMWF, and regional models converged on a peak near 28°C under clear, stable high-pressure conditions with light winds, consistent with typical late-summer Munich climatology (long-term August daytime maxima average 23–25°C). The 99.8% market-implied probability reflects real-money aggregation of this verified observational data, leaving minimal room for revision.
The only realistic challenges would be a post-hoc quality-control adjustment by DWD, use of an alternate station with a slightly different microclimate reading, or an undetected instrument issue—none of which has materialized in the initial reporting.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$193,905End Date
Aug 7, 2026Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
**Trader consensus on 28°C as Munich’s August 7 maximum rests on the German Weather Service (DWD) official station reading, which recorded that exact high.** Pre-event forecasts from DWD, ECMWF, and regional models converged on a peak near 28°C under clear, stable high-pressure conditions with light winds, consistent with typical late-summer Munich climatology (long-term August daytime maxima average 23–25°C). The 99.8% market-implied probability reflects real-money aggregation of this verified observational data, leaving minimal room for revision. The only realistic challenges would be a post-hoc quality-control adjustment by DWD, use of an alternate station with a slightly different microclimate reading, or an undetected instrument issue—none of which has materialized in the initial reporting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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