Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 14°C in Moscow on May 12, backed by official observational data from Roshydromet stations like VDNKh and Balchug, which recorded a daytime peak of 14°C amid extensive cloud cover and patchy rain. This cool anomaly—well below the mid-May climatological average high of 18–19°C—stems from a lingering low-pressure system delivering record-breaking overnight snowfall of around 12 cm, the heaviest for this date, which chilled surface temperatures and limited solar insolation. Evening readings near 12°C under overcast skies further solidify the outcome as the daily maximum window closes, with no model consensus from ECMWF or GFS ensembles suggesting late warming. Realistic challenges would require a rare official data revision from primary stations, though such adjustments are infrequent post-verification.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Moscow on May 12?
Highest temperature in Moscow on May 12?
14°C 100.0%
12°C or below <1%
13°C <1%
15°C <1%
$71,534 Vol.
$71,534 Vol.
May 12, 2026
12°C or below
No
13°C
No
14°C
Yes
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C or higher
No
14°C 100.0%
12°C or below <1%
13°C <1%
15°C <1%
$71,534 Vol.
$71,534 Vol.
May 12, 2026
12°C or below
$8,525 Vol.
No
13°C
$5,768 Vol.
No
14°C
$10,201 Vol.
Yes
15°C
$4,183 Vol.
No
16°C
$5,882 Vol.
No
17°C
$5,244 Vol.
No
18°C
$3,746 Vol.
No
19°C
$5,989 Vol.
No
20°C
$7,158 Vol.
No
21°C
$7,042 Vol.
No
22°C or higher
$7,796 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 14°C in Moscow on May 12, backed by official observational data from Roshydromet stations like VDNKh and Balchug, which recorded a daytime peak of 14°C amid extensive cloud cover and patchy rain. This cool anomaly—well below the mid-May climatological average high of 18–19°C—stems from a lingering low-pressure system delivering record-breaking overnight snowfall of around 12 cm, the heaviest for this date, which chilled surface temperatures and limited solar insolation. Evening readings near 12°C under overcast skies further solidify the outcome as the daily maximum window closes, with no model consensus from ECMWF or GFS ensembles suggesting late warming. Realistic challenges would require a rare official data revision from primary stations, though such adjustments are infrequent post-verification.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 10, 2026, 12:36 AM ET
Volume
$71,534End Date
May 12, 2026Market Opened
May 10, 2026, 12:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 14°C in Moscow on May 12, backed by official observational data from Roshydromet stations like VDNKh and Balchug, which recorded a daytime peak of 14°C amid extensive cloud cover and patchy rain. This cool anomaly—well below the mid-May climatological average high of 18–19°C—stems from a lingering low-pressure system delivering record-breaking overnight snowfall of around 12 cm, the heaviest for this date, which chilled surface temperatures and limited solar insolation. Evening readings near 12°C under overcast skies further solidify the outcome as the daily maximum window closes, with no model consensus from ECMWF or GFS ensembles suggesting late warming. Realistic challenges would require a rare official data revision from primary stations, though such adjustments are infrequent post-verification.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$71,534End Date
May 12, 2026Market Opened
May 10, 2026, 12:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 14°C in Moscow on May 12, backed by official observational data from Roshydromet stations like VDNKh and Balchug, which recorded a daytime peak of 14°C amid extensive cloud cover and patchy rain. This cool anomaly—well below the mid-May climatological average high of 18–19°C—stems from a lingering low-pressure system delivering record-breaking overnight snowfall of around 12 cm, the heaviest for this date, which chilled surface temperatures and limited solar insolation. Evening readings near 12°C under overcast skies further solidify the outcome as the daily maximum window closes, with no model consensus from ECMWF or GFS ensembles suggesting late warming. Realistic challenges would require a rare official data revision from primary stations, though such adjustments are infrequent post-verification.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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