**Trader consensus has converged on 21°C as the day's maximum temperature in Moscow on August 21, 2026, reflecting real-time observational data and model runs aligning with the climatological average high of roughly 21.8°C.** Official forecasts from Russia's Hydrometeorological Center anticipated a daytime range of 22–24°C under variable cloud cover and scattered showers, yet actual conditions—including persistent cloudiness, light rain, and westerly winds—kept peaks at or below 21–22°C in hourly readings. This outcome sits near the long-term norm for late August, when Atlantic-influenced air masses typically moderate summer warmth. The near-100% market-implied probability indicates traders view 21°C as the confirmed or highly probable high based on surface observations and short-range models. Only an unforecasted late-day spike above this threshold, driven by unexpected clearing or advection of warmer air, could realistically alter resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Moscow on August 21?
Highest temperature in Moscow on August 21?
21°C 100.0%
16°C or below <1%
17°C <1%
18°C <1%
$31,288 Vol.
$31,288 Vol.
Aug 21, 2026
16°C or below
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
Yes
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C or higher
No
21°C 100.0%
16°C or below <1%
17°C <1%
18°C <1%
$31,288 Vol.
$31,288 Vol.
Aug 21, 2026
16°C or below
$793 Vol.
No
17°C
$938 Vol.
No
18°C
$622 Vol.
No
19°C
$751 Vol.
No
20°C
$2,476 Vol.
No
21°C
$8,850 Vol.
Yes
22°C
$4,696 Vol.
No
23°C
$8,813 Vol.
No
24°C
$1,971 Vol.
No
25°C
$548 Vol.
No
26°C or higher
$830 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus has converged on 21°C as the day's maximum temperature in Moscow on August 21, 2026, reflecting real-time observational data and model runs aligning with the climatological average high of roughly 21.8°C.** Official forecasts from Russia's Hydrometeorological Center anticipated a daytime range of 22–24°C under variable cloud cover and scattered showers, yet actual conditions—including persistent cloudiness, light rain, and westerly winds—kept peaks at or below 21–22°C in hourly readings. This outcome sits near the long-term norm for late August, when Atlantic-influenced air masses typically moderate summer warmth. The near-100% market-implied probability indicates traders view 21°C as the confirmed or highly probable high based on surface observations and short-range models. Only an unforecasted late-day spike above this threshold, driven by unexpected clearing or advection of warmer air, could realistically alter resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 19, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$31,288End Date
Aug 21, 2026Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus has converged on 21°C as the day's maximum temperature in Moscow on August 21, 2026, reflecting real-time observational data and model runs aligning with the climatological average high of roughly 21.8°C.** Official forecasts from Russia's Hydrometeorological Center anticipated a daytime range of 22–24°C under variable cloud cover and scattered showers, yet actual conditions—including persistent cloudiness, light rain, and westerly winds—kept peaks at or below 21–22°C in hourly readings. This outcome sits near the long-term norm for late August, when Atlantic-influenced air masses typically moderate summer warmth. The near-100% market-implied probability indicates traders view 21°C as the confirmed or highly probable high based on surface observations and short-range models. Only an unforecasted late-day spike above this threshold, driven by unexpected clearing or advection of warmer air, could realistically alter resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$31,288End Date
Aug 21, 2026Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
**Trader consensus has converged on 21°C as the day's maximum temperature in Moscow on August 21, 2026, reflecting real-time observational data and model runs aligning with the climatological average high of roughly 21.8°C.** Official forecasts from Russia's Hydrometeorological Center anticipated a daytime range of 22–24°C under variable cloud cover and scattered showers, yet actual conditions—including persistent cloudiness, light rain, and westerly winds—kept peaks at or below 21–22°C in hourly readings. This outcome sits near the long-term norm for late August, when Atlantic-influenced air masses typically moderate summer warmth. The near-100% market-implied probability indicates traders view 21°C as the confirmed or highly probable high based on surface observations and short-range models. Only an unforecasted late-day spike above this threshold, driven by unexpected clearing or advection of warmer air, could realistically alter resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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