Official forecasts from Roshydromet and major ensemble models place Moscow’s August 20 maximum temperature near 22°C under partly cloudy skies, light southerly flow, and limited urban heat-island enhancement, supporting the market’s near-certain 22°C outcome. This aligns with typical mid-August climatology for the region and recent model runs showing minimal day-to-day variability. Traders assign negligible probability to 25°C because no credible guidance supports significant warming or clearer skies that would push readings higher. An unexpected shift in steering flow or thicker cloud cover could still trim the high by 1–2°C, while rapid clearing or stronger southerly advection remain the only realistic paths to a higher reading before markets resolve.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Moscow on August 20?
Highest temperature in Moscow on August 20?
22°C 100.0%
16°C or below <1%
17°C <1%
18°C <1%
$39,791 Vol.
$39,791 Vol.
Aug 20, 2026
16°C or below
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
Yes
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C or higher
No
22°C 100.0%
16°C or below <1%
17°C <1%
18°C <1%
$39,791 Vol.
$39,791 Vol.
Aug 20, 2026
16°C or below
$362 Vol.
No
17°C
$805 Vol.
No
18°C
$1,724 Vol.
No
19°C
$3,063 Vol.
No
20°C
$7,099 Vol.
No
21°C
$6,393 Vol.
No
22°C
$8,289 Vol.
Yes
23°C
$6,449 Vol.
No
24°C
$2,741 Vol.
No
25°C
$978 Vol.
No
26°C or higher
$1,887 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from Roshydromet and major ensemble models place Moscow’s August 20 maximum temperature near 22°C under partly cloudy skies, light southerly flow, and limited urban heat-island enhancement, supporting the market’s near-certain 22°C outcome. This aligns with typical mid-August climatology for the region and recent model runs showing minimal day-to-day variability. Traders assign negligible probability to 25°C because no credible guidance supports significant warming or clearer skies that would push readings higher. An unexpected shift in steering flow or thicker cloud cover could still trim the high by 1–2°C, while rapid clearing or stronger southerly advection remain the only realistic paths to a higher reading before markets resolve.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 18, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$39,791End Date
Aug 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from Roshydromet and major ensemble models place Moscow’s August 20 maximum temperature near 22°C under partly cloudy skies, light southerly flow, and limited urban heat-island enhancement, supporting the market’s near-certain 22°C outcome. This aligns with typical mid-August climatology for the region and recent model runs showing minimal day-to-day variability. Traders assign negligible probability to 25°C because no credible guidance supports significant warming or clearer skies that would push readings higher. An unexpected shift in steering flow or thicker cloud cover could still trim the high by 1–2°C, while rapid clearing or stronger southerly advection remain the only realistic paths to a higher reading before markets resolve.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$39,791End Date
Aug 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Official forecasts from Roshydromet and major ensemble models place Moscow’s August 20 maximum temperature near 22°C under partly cloudy skies, light southerly flow, and limited urban heat-island enhancement, supporting the market’s near-certain 22°C outcome. This aligns with typical mid-August climatology for the region and recent model runs showing minimal day-to-day variability. Traders assign negligible probability to 25°C because no credible guidance supports significant warming or clearer skies that would push readings higher. An unexpected shift in steering flow or thicker cloud cover could still trim the high by 1–2°C, while rapid clearing or stronger southerly advection remain the only realistic paths to a higher reading before markets resolve.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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