Market consensus has converged on a 22°C high for Moscow on August 18 because real-time surface observations and numerical weather prediction outputs from agencies including Roshydromet align on that peak value under stable high-pressure conditions and light winds. Ensemble forecasts show minimal spread around the maximum, consistent with climatological norms for mid-August when diurnal temperature ranges are modest. Official station data from Vnukovo and Domodedovo, cross-validated against satellite-derived land surface temperatures, reinforce the same threshold without exceeding it. Only a late-day model revision incorporating unforecasted cloud cover or advection from cooler air masses could shift the recorded maximum, though such adjustments remain low-probability given the current atmospheric setup. Traders view the outcome as effectively resolved given the strength of converging observational evidence.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Moscow on August 18?
Highest temperature in Moscow on August 18?
22°C 100.0%
18°C or below <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$27,802 Vol.
$27,802 Vol.
Aug 18, 2026
18°C or below
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
Yes
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C or higher
No
22°C 100.0%
18°C or below <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$27,802 Vol.
$27,802 Vol.
Aug 18, 2026
18°C or below
$665 Vol.
No
19°C
$1,612 Vol.
No
20°C
$1,516 Vol.
No
21°C
$2,986 Vol.
No
22°C
$7,271 Vol.
Yes
23°C
$4,190 Vol.
No
24°C
$4,397 Vol.
No
25°C
$2,241 Vol.
No
26°C
$1,166 Vol.
No
27°C
$1,471 Vol.
No
28°C or higher
$286 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Market consensus has converged on a 22°C high for Moscow on August 18 because real-time surface observations and numerical weather prediction outputs from agencies including Roshydromet align on that peak value under stable high-pressure conditions and light winds. Ensemble forecasts show minimal spread around the maximum, consistent with climatological norms for mid-August when diurnal temperature ranges are modest. Official station data from Vnukovo and Domodedovo, cross-validated against satellite-derived land surface temperatures, reinforce the same threshold without exceeding it. Only a late-day model revision incorporating unforecasted cloud cover or advection from cooler air masses could shift the recorded maximum, though such adjustments remain low-probability given the current atmospheric setup. Traders view the outcome as effectively resolved given the strength of converging observational evidence.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$27,802End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
Aug 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Market consensus has converged on a 22°C high for Moscow on August 18 because real-time surface observations and numerical weather prediction outputs from agencies including Roshydromet align on that peak value under stable high-pressure conditions and light winds. Ensemble forecasts show minimal spread around the maximum, consistent with climatological norms for mid-August when diurnal temperature ranges are modest. Official station data from Vnukovo and Domodedovo, cross-validated against satellite-derived land surface temperatures, reinforce the same threshold without exceeding it. Only a late-day model revision incorporating unforecasted cloud cover or advection from cooler air masses could shift the recorded maximum, though such adjustments remain low-probability given the current atmospheric setup. Traders view the outcome as effectively resolved given the strength of converging observational evidence.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$27,802End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
Aug 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Market consensus has converged on a 22°C high for Moscow on August 18 because real-time surface observations and numerical weather prediction outputs from agencies including Roshydromet align on that peak value under stable high-pressure conditions and light winds. Ensemble forecasts show minimal spread around the maximum, consistent with climatological norms for mid-August when diurnal temperature ranges are modest. Official station data from Vnukovo and Domodedovo, cross-validated against satellite-derived land surface temperatures, reinforce the same threshold without exceeding it. Only a late-day model revision incorporating unforecasted cloud cover or advection from cooler air masses could shift the recorded maximum, though such adjustments remain low-probability given the current atmospheric setup. Traders view the outcome as effectively resolved given the strength of converging observational evidence.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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