Traders assign near-certainty to a 20°C high in Moscow on August 15 because official station observations and real-time meteorological data have already confirmed this exact daily maximum. Stable atmospheric conditions, including a dominant high-pressure ridge and minimal diurnal variation, produced readings that align precisely with this threshold under standard World Meteorological Organization protocols. The overwhelming market-implied odds reflect this verified observational consensus rather than model projections. A realistic challenge would require an official post-day correction from the Russian Hydrometeorological Service or a redefinition of the observation window, both of which remain low-probability given established verification procedures.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Moscow on August 15?
Highest temperature in Moscow on August 15?
20°C 100.0%
15°C or below <1%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
$33,393 Vol.
$33,393 Vol.
Aug 15, 2026
15°C or below
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
Yes
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C or higher
No
20°C 100.0%
15°C or below <1%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
$33,393 Vol.
$33,393 Vol.
Aug 15, 2026
15°C or below
$715 Vol.
No
16°C
$437 Vol.
No
17°C
$1,800 Vol.
No
18°C
$2,240 Vol.
No
19°C
$12,487 Vol.
No
20°C
$7,400 Vol.
Yes
21°C
$4,068 Vol.
No
22°C
$2,083 Vol.
No
23°C
$1,226 Vol.
No
24°C
$645 Vol.
No
25°C or higher
$291 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign near-certainty to a 20°C high in Moscow on August 15 because official station observations and real-time meteorological data have already confirmed this exact daily maximum. Stable atmospheric conditions, including a dominant high-pressure ridge and minimal diurnal variation, produced readings that align precisely with this threshold under standard World Meteorological Organization protocols. The overwhelming market-implied odds reflect this verified observational consensus rather than model projections. A realistic challenge would require an official post-day correction from the Russian Hydrometeorological Service or a redefinition of the observation window, both of which remain low-probability given established verification procedures.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$33,393End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign near-certainty to a 20°C high in Moscow on August 15 because official station observations and real-time meteorological data have already confirmed this exact daily maximum. Stable atmospheric conditions, including a dominant high-pressure ridge and minimal diurnal variation, produced readings that align precisely with this threshold under standard World Meteorological Organization protocols. The overwhelming market-implied odds reflect this verified observational consensus rather than model projections. A realistic challenge would require an official post-day correction from the Russian Hydrometeorological Service or a redefinition of the observation window, both of which remain low-probability given established verification procedures.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$33,393End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Traders assign near-certainty to a 20°C high in Moscow on August 15 because official station observations and real-time meteorological data have already confirmed this exact daily maximum. Stable atmospheric conditions, including a dominant high-pressure ridge and minimal diurnal variation, produced readings that align precisely with this threshold under standard World Meteorological Organization protocols. The overwhelming market-implied odds reflect this verified observational consensus rather than model projections. A realistic challenge would require an official post-day correction from the Russian Hydrometeorological Service or a redefinition of the observation window, both of which remain low-probability given established verification procedures.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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