National Weather Service forecasts and observational data positioned Miami’s August 19 high near 95°F under mostly sunny skies with limited afternoon convection, driving the market’s 100% implied probability for the 94-95°F bin. Modest sea-breeze convergence and boundary-layer moisture suppressed further warming after the prior day’s record-tying 100°F reading, consistent with August climatology that averages 89–91°F yet remains elevated this season. Official Miami International Airport measurements and model consensus reinforced this narrow range, with traders assigning negligible odds to outliers given the timing of any thunderstorm development. Earlier or more widespread convection could have capped readings below 94°F, while delayed cloud cover or stronger insolation might have briefly exceeded 95°F, though both scenarios carried low probability under prevailing guidance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Miami on August 19?
Highest temperature in Miami on August 19?
94-95°F 100.0%
87°F or below <1%
88-89°F <1%
90-91°F <1%
$65,741 Vol.
$65,741 Vol.
Aug 19, 2026
87°F or below
No
88-89°F
No
90-91°F
No
92-93°F
No
94-95°F
Yes
96-97°F
No
98-99°F
No
100-101°F
No
102-103°F
No
104-105°F
No
106°F or higher
No
94-95°F 100.0%
87°F or below <1%
88-89°F <1%
90-91°F <1%
$65,741 Vol.
$65,741 Vol.
Aug 19, 2026
87°F or below
$35 Vol.
No
88-89°F
$352 Vol.
No
90-91°F
$3,930 Vol.
No
92-93°F
$11,325 Vol.
No
94-95°F
$14,444 Vol.
Yes
96-97°F
$13,956 Vol.
No
98-99°F
$9,312 Vol.
No
100-101°F
$8,760 Vol.
No
102-103°F
$1,165 Vol.
No
104-105°F
$312 Vol.
No
106°F or higher
$2,150 Vol.
No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.National Weather Service forecasts and observational data positioned Miami’s August 19 high near 95°F under mostly sunny skies with limited afternoon convection, driving the market’s 100% implied probability for the 94-95°F bin. Modest sea-breeze convergence and boundary-layer moisture suppressed further warming after the prior day’s record-tying 100°F reading, consistent with August climatology that averages 89–91°F yet remains elevated this season. Official Miami International Airport measurements and model consensus reinforced this narrow range, with traders assigning negligible odds to outliers given the timing of any thunderstorm development. Earlier or more widespread convection could have capped readings below 94°F, while delayed cloud cover or stronger insolation might have briefly exceeded 95°F, though both scenarios carried low probability under prevailing guidance.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 9:56 PM ET
Volume
$65,741End Date
Aug 19, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 9:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.National Weather Service forecasts and observational data positioned Miami’s August 19 high near 95°F under mostly sunny skies with limited afternoon convection, driving the market’s 100% implied probability for the 94-95°F bin. Modest sea-breeze convergence and boundary-layer moisture suppressed further warming after the prior day’s record-tying 100°F reading, consistent with August climatology that averages 89–91°F yet remains elevated this season. Official Miami International Airport measurements and model consensus reinforced this narrow range, with traders assigning negligible odds to outliers given the timing of any thunderstorm development. Earlier or more widespread convection could have capped readings below 94°F, while delayed cloud cover or stronger insolation might have briefly exceeded 95°F, though both scenarios carried low probability under prevailing guidance.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$65,741End Date
Aug 19, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 9:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
National Weather Service forecasts and observational data positioned Miami’s August 19 high near 95°F under mostly sunny skies with limited afternoon convection, driving the market’s 100% implied probability for the 94-95°F bin. Modest sea-breeze convergence and boundary-layer moisture suppressed further warming after the prior day’s record-tying 100°F reading, consistent with August climatology that averages 89–91°F yet remains elevated this season. Official Miami International Airport measurements and model consensus reinforced this narrow range, with traders assigning negligible odds to outliers given the timing of any thunderstorm development. Earlier or more widespread convection could have capped readings below 94°F, while delayed cloud cover or stronger insolation might have briefly exceeded 95°F, though both scenarios carried low probability under prevailing guidance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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