Official meteorological observations from stations across Mexico City, including those referenced by national weather services, recorded a daily maximum of 24°C on September 17, 2026, aligning precisely with the market's near-certain outcome. This value fell within typical September variability for the high-elevation basin, where afternoon heating under partly cloudy skies and light winds often produces peaks near seasonal averages of 22–25°C. Trader consensus consolidated rapidly once preliminary station data and model verification became available the following day, leaving negligible probability on adjacent bins. Only a late data revision from the primary reporting network or an unrecognized microclimate discrepancy at the resolution station could realistically shift the result, though such adjustments are rare once preliminary maxima are confirmed.