Official meteorological records from Mexico City on September 14 confirm a daily maximum of 24°C, aligning with the market's near-certain 100% implied probability for that outcome. Mid-September climatology for the region typically features highs of 22–25°C under stable high-pressure conditions, with minimal influence from tropical moisture or frontal systems at this latitude and elevation. Recent model guidance and surface observations showed no significant deviations from seasonal baselines, reinforcing trader consensus. Resolution hinges on verified data from agencies like the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional, where small revisions in reporting could theoretically alter thresholds but remain unlikely given the tight clustering around observed values.