PAGASA forecasts for Metro Manila on August 9, 2026, indicate a daytime high near 30–31°C amid the southwest monsoon, with 60% rain probability and 50–100 mm totals expected, consistent with the market's 100% implied probability on 31°C. Persistent cloud cover and convective activity limit solar heating and align with climatological August maxima around 31°C in the region. Official observations from the primary Manila station will resolve the market. Clearer breaks in monsoon flow or reduced rainfall could allow temperatures to edge higher, while stronger localized downpours or model revisions from updated PAGASA runs might cap the peak below this threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Manila on August 9?
Highest temperature in Manila on August 9?
31°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$46,578 Vol.
$46,578 Vol.
Aug 9, 2026
23°C or below
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
Yes
32°C
No
33°C or higher
No
31°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$46,578 Vol.
$46,578 Vol.
Aug 9, 2026
23°C or below
$373 Vol.
No
24°C
$415 Vol.
No
25°C
$1,586 Vol.
No
26°C
$2,106 Vol.
No
27°C
$6,492 Vol.
No
28°C
$5,393 Vol.
No
29°C
$6,683 Vol.
No
30°C
$7,074 Vol.
No
31°C
$7,246 Vol.
Yes
32°C
$4,369 Vol.
No
33°C or higher
$4,841 Vol.
No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.PAGASA forecasts for Metro Manila on August 9, 2026, indicate a daytime high near 30–31°C amid the southwest monsoon, with 60% rain probability and 50–100 mm totals expected, consistent with the market's 100% implied probability on 31°C. Persistent cloud cover and convective activity limit solar heating and align with climatological August maxima around 31°C in the region. Official observations from the primary Manila station will resolve the market. Clearer breaks in monsoon flow or reduced rainfall could allow temperatures to edge higher, while stronger localized downpours or model revisions from updated PAGASA runs might cap the peak below this threshold.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 7, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$46,578End Date
Aug 9, 2026Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.PAGASA forecasts for Metro Manila on August 9, 2026, indicate a daytime high near 30–31°C amid the southwest monsoon, with 60% rain probability and 50–100 mm totals expected, consistent with the market's 100% implied probability on 31°C. Persistent cloud cover and convective activity limit solar heating and align with climatological August maxima around 31°C in the region. Official observations from the primary Manila station will resolve the market. Clearer breaks in monsoon flow or reduced rainfall could allow temperatures to edge higher, while stronger localized downpours or model revisions from updated PAGASA runs might cap the peak below this threshold.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$46,578End Date
Aug 9, 2026Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
PAGASA forecasts for Metro Manila on August 9, 2026, indicate a daytime high near 30–31°C amid the southwest monsoon, with 60% rain probability and 50–100 mm totals expected, consistent with the market's 100% implied probability on 31°C. Persistent cloud cover and convective activity limit solar heating and align with climatological August maxima around 31°C in the region. Official observations from the primary Manila station will resolve the market. Clearer breaks in monsoon flow or reduced rainfall could allow temperatures to edge higher, while stronger localized downpours or model revisions from updated PAGASA runs might cap the peak below this threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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