Official PAGASA forecasts and real-time observations for Metro Manila on August 20 position a daily maximum of 32°C as the near-certain outcome, aligning with the market's 100% implied probability on that threshold. August climatology features average highs near 30–31°C under the southwest monsoon regime, with typical afternoon peaks driven by solar heating amid partly cloudy skies and isolated showers that limit extreme excursions. Current conditions, including observed readings in the low 30s and model consensus for light winds and moderate humidity, reinforce this level without signals of significant cooling from increased cloud cover or rainfall. Traders interpret the overwhelming consensus as reflecting verified agency data rather than projections. A realistic challenge would require unexpected monsoon strengthening that suppresses insolation enough to cap the high below 32°C before official closing observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Manila on August 20?
Highest temperature in Manila on August 20?
32°C 100.0%
25°C or below <1%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
$23,299 Vol.
$23,299 Vol.
Aug 20, 2026
25°C or below
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
Yes
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C or higher
No
32°C 100.0%
25°C or below <1%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
$23,299 Vol.
$23,299 Vol.
Aug 20, 2026
25°C or below
$296 Vol.
No
26°C
$527 Vol.
No
27°C
$657 Vol.
No
28°C
$544 Vol.
No
29°C
$508 Vol.
No
30°C
$1,376 Vol.
No
31°C
$7,171 Vol.
No
32°C
$4,781 Vol.
Yes
33°C
$2,903 Vol.
No
34°C
$2,879 Vol.
No
35°C or higher
$1,659 Vol.
No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official PAGASA forecasts and real-time observations for Metro Manila on August 20 position a daily maximum of 32°C as the near-certain outcome, aligning with the market's 100% implied probability on that threshold. August climatology features average highs near 30–31°C under the southwest monsoon regime, with typical afternoon peaks driven by solar heating amid partly cloudy skies and isolated showers that limit extreme excursions. Current conditions, including observed readings in the low 30s and model consensus for light winds and moderate humidity, reinforce this level without signals of significant cooling from increased cloud cover or rainfall. Traders interpret the overwhelming consensus as reflecting verified agency data rather than projections. A realistic challenge would require unexpected monsoon strengthening that suppresses insolation enough to cap the high below 32°C before official closing observations.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 18, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$23,299End Date
Aug 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official PAGASA forecasts and real-time observations for Metro Manila on August 20 position a daily maximum of 32°C as the near-certain outcome, aligning with the market's 100% implied probability on that threshold. August climatology features average highs near 30–31°C under the southwest monsoon regime, with typical afternoon peaks driven by solar heating amid partly cloudy skies and isolated showers that limit extreme excursions. Current conditions, including observed readings in the low 30s and model consensus for light winds and moderate humidity, reinforce this level without signals of significant cooling from increased cloud cover or rainfall. Traders interpret the overwhelming consensus as reflecting verified agency data rather than projections. A realistic challenge would require unexpected monsoon strengthening that suppresses insolation enough to cap the high below 32°C before official closing observations.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$23,299End Date
Aug 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Official PAGASA forecasts and real-time observations for Metro Manila on August 20 position a daily maximum of 32°C as the near-certain outcome, aligning with the market's 100% implied probability on that threshold. August climatology features average highs near 30–31°C under the southwest monsoon regime, with typical afternoon peaks driven by solar heating amid partly cloudy skies and isolated showers that limit extreme excursions. Current conditions, including observed readings in the low 30s and model consensus for light winds and moderate humidity, reinforce this level without signals of significant cooling from increased cloud cover or rainfall. Traders interpret the overwhelming consensus as reflecting verified agency data rather than projections. A realistic challenge would require unexpected monsoon strengthening that suppresses insolation enough to cap the high below 32°C before official closing observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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