The southwest monsoon currently dominating Luzon has increased cloud cover and rainfall probability over Metro Manila, limiting solar heating and positioning 30°C as the expected daily maximum according to PAGASA and model consensus. This aligns with the seasonal August average high near 30–31°C, where persistent moisture from the monsoon trough typically suppresses peaks below historical baselines by reducing insolation. Official guidance shows a 26–33°C range with 40–60% rain chances, reinforcing trader consensus around this threshold. A sudden clearing of skies or weaker monsoon flow could allow brief warming toward 32°C or higher, while heavier afternoon showers might cap readings closer to 29°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Manila on August 17?
Highest temperature in Manila on August 17?
30°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$51,101 Vol.
$51,101 Vol.
Aug 17, 2026
23°C or below
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
Yes
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C or higher
No
30°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$51,101 Vol.
$51,101 Vol.
Aug 17, 2026
23°C or below
$199 Vol.
No
24°C
$456 Vol.
No
25°C
$706 Vol.
No
26°C
$2,451 Vol.
No
27°C
$4,306 Vol.
No
28°C
$21,431 Vol.
No
29°C
$5,574 Vol.
No
30°C
$5,748 Vol.
Yes
31°C
$3,519 Vol.
No
32°C
$4,597 Vol.
No
33°C or higher
$2,114 Vol.
No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The southwest monsoon currently dominating Luzon has increased cloud cover and rainfall probability over Metro Manila, limiting solar heating and positioning 30°C as the expected daily maximum according to PAGASA and model consensus. This aligns with the seasonal August average high near 30–31°C, where persistent moisture from the monsoon trough typically suppresses peaks below historical baselines by reducing insolation. Official guidance shows a 26–33°C range with 40–60% rain chances, reinforcing trader consensus around this threshold. A sudden clearing of skies or weaker monsoon flow could allow brief warming toward 32°C or higher, while heavier afternoon showers might cap readings closer to 29°C.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 15, 2026, 4:09 PM ET
Volume
$51,101End Date
Aug 17, 2026Market Opened
Aug 15, 2026, 4:09 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The southwest monsoon currently dominating Luzon has increased cloud cover and rainfall probability over Metro Manila, limiting solar heating and positioning 30°C as the expected daily maximum according to PAGASA and model consensus. This aligns with the seasonal August average high near 30–31°C, where persistent moisture from the monsoon trough typically suppresses peaks below historical baselines by reducing insolation. Official guidance shows a 26–33°C range with 40–60% rain chances, reinforcing trader consensus around this threshold. A sudden clearing of skies or weaker monsoon flow could allow brief warming toward 32°C or higher, while heavier afternoon showers might cap readings closer to 29°C.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$51,101End Date
Aug 17, 2026Market Opened
Aug 15, 2026, 4:09 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
The southwest monsoon currently dominating Luzon has increased cloud cover and rainfall probability over Metro Manila, limiting solar heating and positioning 30°C as the expected daily maximum according to PAGASA and model consensus. This aligns with the seasonal August average high near 30–31°C, where persistent moisture from the monsoon trough typically suppresses peaks below historical baselines by reducing insolation. Official guidance shows a 26–33°C range with 40–60% rain chances, reinforcing trader consensus around this threshold. A sudden clearing of skies or weaker monsoon flow could allow brief warming toward 32°C or higher, while heavier afternoon showers might cap readings closer to 29°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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