Traders assign near-certainty to a 32°C high in Madrid on August 20 because official AEMET forecasts and ensemble model runs converge on that value under mostly sunny skies, light northerly flow, and minimal cloud cover typical of late-summer conditions in the central Iberian Peninsula. Daytime heating is expected to peak near this level before radiative cooling begins after sunset, aligning with historical climatology for the period when average August maxima hover around 31–33°C. Minor deviations in boundary-layer moisture or afternoon convection remain possible but are currently assessed as low-probability by numerical guidance, limiting realistic paths to outcomes outside 31–33°C before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on August 20?
Highest temperature in Madrid on August 20?
32°C 100.0%
28°C or below <1%
29°C <1%
30°C <1%
$56,813 Vol.
$56,813 Vol.
Aug 20, 2026
28°C or below
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
Yes
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C
No
37°C
No
38°C or higher
No
32°C 100.0%
28°C or below <1%
29°C <1%
30°C <1%
$56,813 Vol.
$56,813 Vol.
Aug 20, 2026
28°C or below
$2,452 Vol.
No
29°C
$2,556 Vol.
No
30°C
$9,595 Vol.
No
31°C
$11,982 Vol.
No
32°C
$12,243 Vol.
Yes
33°C
$8,345 Vol.
No
34°C
$5,029 Vol.
No
35°C
$3,687 Vol.
No
36°C
$566 Vol.
No
37°C
$129 Vol.
No
38°C or higher
$229 Vol.
No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign near-certainty to a 32°C high in Madrid on August 20 because official AEMET forecasts and ensemble model runs converge on that value under mostly sunny skies, light northerly flow, and minimal cloud cover typical of late-summer conditions in the central Iberian Peninsula. Daytime heating is expected to peak near this level before radiative cooling begins after sunset, aligning with historical climatology for the period when average August maxima hover around 31–33°C. Minor deviations in boundary-layer moisture or afternoon convection remain possible but are currently assessed as low-probability by numerical guidance, limiting realistic paths to outcomes outside 31–33°C before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 18, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$56,813End Date
Aug 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign near-certainty to a 32°C high in Madrid on August 20 because official AEMET forecasts and ensemble model runs converge on that value under mostly sunny skies, light northerly flow, and minimal cloud cover typical of late-summer conditions in the central Iberian Peninsula. Daytime heating is expected to peak near this level before radiative cooling begins after sunset, aligning with historical climatology for the period when average August maxima hover around 31–33°C. Minor deviations in boundary-layer moisture or afternoon convection remain possible but are currently assessed as low-probability by numerical guidance, limiting realistic paths to outcomes outside 31–33°C before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$56,813End Date
Aug 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Traders assign near-certainty to a 32°C high in Madrid on August 20 because official AEMET forecasts and ensemble model runs converge on that value under mostly sunny skies, light northerly flow, and minimal cloud cover typical of late-summer conditions in the central Iberian Peninsula. Daytime heating is expected to peak near this level before radiative cooling begins after sunset, aligning with historical climatology for the period when average August maxima hover around 31–33°C. Minor deviations in boundary-layer moisture or afternoon convection remain possible but are currently assessed as low-probability by numerical guidance, limiting realistic paths to outcomes outside 31–33°C before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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