Official forecasts from Spain’s AEMET and supporting ECMWF model runs converge on a 36°C daytime maximum for Madrid on August 11, driven by a persistent high-pressure ridge and a warm air mass associated with an Iberian heat dome. Ensemble guidance shows limited spread, with most solutions clustered between 35–38°C, reflecting modest uncertainty tied to local wind patterns and boundary-layer mixing that can shift the observed peak by roughly 1°C. This alignment underpins the near-certain market-implied odds on 36°C, as real-time trader consensus incorporates the latest observational updates and climatological context of midsummer central Iberian Plateau heating. Minor forecast revisions from afternoon soundings remain the primary variable that could alter resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on August 11?
Highest temperature in Madrid on August 11?
36°C 100.0%
32°C or below <1%
33°C <1%
34°C <1%
$80,380 Vol.
$80,380 Vol.
Aug 11, 2026
32°C or below
No
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C
Yes
37°C
No
38°C
No
39°C
No
40°C
No
41°C
No
42°C or higher
No
36°C 100.0%
32°C or below <1%
33°C <1%
34°C <1%
$80,380 Vol.
$80,380 Vol.
Aug 11, 2026
32°C or below
$2,040 Vol.
No
33°C
$623 Vol.
No
34°C
$2,331 Vol.
No
35°C
$10,857 Vol.
No
36°C
$25,161 Vol.
Yes
37°C
$16,727 Vol.
No
38°C
$11,617 Vol.
No
39°C
$7,543 Vol.
No
40°C
$2,538 Vol.
No
41°C
$578 Vol.
No
42°C or higher
$364 Vol.
No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from Spain’s AEMET and supporting ECMWF model runs converge on a 36°C daytime maximum for Madrid on August 11, driven by a persistent high-pressure ridge and a warm air mass associated with an Iberian heat dome. Ensemble guidance shows limited spread, with most solutions clustered between 35–38°C, reflecting modest uncertainty tied to local wind patterns and boundary-layer mixing that can shift the observed peak by roughly 1°C. This alignment underpins the near-certain market-implied odds on 36°C, as real-time trader consensus incorporates the latest observational updates and climatological context of midsummer central Iberian Plateau heating. Minor forecast revisions from afternoon soundings remain the primary variable that could alter resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 9, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$80,380End Date
Aug 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 9, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from Spain’s AEMET and supporting ECMWF model runs converge on a 36°C daytime maximum for Madrid on August 11, driven by a persistent high-pressure ridge and a warm air mass associated with an Iberian heat dome. Ensemble guidance shows limited spread, with most solutions clustered between 35–38°C, reflecting modest uncertainty tied to local wind patterns and boundary-layer mixing that can shift the observed peak by roughly 1°C. This alignment underpins the near-certain market-implied odds on 36°C, as real-time trader consensus incorporates the latest observational updates and climatological context of midsummer central Iberian Plateau heating. Minor forecast revisions from afternoon soundings remain the primary variable that could alter resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$80,380End Date
Aug 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 9, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Official forecasts from Spain’s AEMET and supporting ECMWF model runs converge on a 36°C daytime maximum for Madrid on August 11, driven by a persistent high-pressure ridge and a warm air mass associated with an Iberian heat dome. Ensemble guidance shows limited spread, with most solutions clustered between 35–38°C, reflecting modest uncertainty tied to local wind patterns and boundary-layer mixing that can shift the observed peak by roughly 1°C. This alignment underpins the near-certain market-implied odds on 36°C, as real-time trader consensus incorporates the latest observational updates and climatological context of midsummer central Iberian Plateau heating. Minor forecast revisions from afternoon soundings remain the primary variable that could alter resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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