India Meteorological Department observations confirm Lucknow's maximum temperature on May 12 reached 37.1°C at the airport station—a 2.7°C departure below normal—under clear skies with possible afternoon thundery development, aligning with the prior day's 36.3°C low. This cooler-than-typical May pattern, influenced by recent above-normal rainfall and convective activity, has driven trader consensus to a 100% implied probability for 38°C or below, reflecting verified measurements from the authoritative IMD as ground truth for market resolution. While final data validation is pending, a realistic challenge would require a rare upward revision from an alternative station or measurement error, improbable given consistent mid-afternoon readings around 34–37°C and declining solar angles late in the day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Lucknow on May 12?
38°C or below 100.0%
39°C <1%
40°C <1%
41°C <1%
$29,431 Vol.
$29,431 Vol.
38°C or below
Yes
39°C
No
40°C
No
41°C
No
42°C
No
43°C
No
44°C
No
45°C
No
46°C
No
47°C
No
48°C or higher
No
38°C or below 100.0%
39°C <1%
40°C <1%
41°C <1%
$29,431 Vol.
$29,431 Vol.
38°C or below
Yes
39°C
No
40°C
No
41°C
No
42°C
No
43°C
No
44°C
No
45°C
No
46°C
No
47°C
No
48°C or higher
No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 10, 2026, 12:53 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
India Meteorological Department observations confirm Lucknow's maximum temperature on May 12 reached 37.1°C at the airport station—a 2.7°C departure below normal—under clear skies with possible afternoon thundery development, aligning with the prior day's 36.3°C low. This cooler-than-typical May pattern, influenced by recent above-normal rainfall and convective activity, has driven trader consensus to a 100% implied probability for 38°C or below, reflecting verified measurements from the authoritative IMD as ground truth for market resolution. While final data validation is pending, a realistic challenge would require a rare upward revision from an alternative station or measurement error, improbable given consistent mid-afternoon readings around 34–37°C and declining solar angles late in the day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated

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