Recent Met Office guidance and ensemble model consensus point to a London high of 23°C on August 6 under mostly clear to hazy skies with light winds, limiting the diurnal range and supporting the market's near-certain positioning on that outcome. Official forecasts emphasize stable high pressure and modest insolation consistent with seasonal averages near 23°C, with minimal advection of warmer air. The 100% implied probability reflects trader assessment of low forecast uncertainty this close to resolution, as surface observations and nowcasting data align tightly with model runs. Only rapid unexpected increases in cloud cover or a shift in wind patterns could realistically push the verified maximum outside this narrow band.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in London on August 6?
Highest temperature in London on August 6?
23°C 100.0%
19°C or below <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$180,316 Vol.
$180,316 Vol.
Aug 6, 2026
19°C or below
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
Yes
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C or higher
No
23°C 100.0%
19°C or below <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$180,316 Vol.
$180,316 Vol.
Aug 6, 2026
19°C or below
$6,667 Vol.
No
20°C
$21,978 Vol.
No
21°C
$19,010 Vol.
No
22°C
$44,996 Vol.
No
23°C
$23,666 Vol.
Yes
24°C
$18,397 Vol.
No
25°C
$21,465 Vol.
No
26°C
$8,979 Vol.
No
27°C
$4,381 Vol.
No
28°C
$4,899 Vol.
No
29°C or higher
$5,879 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Met Office guidance and ensemble model consensus point to a London high of 23°C on August 6 under mostly clear to hazy skies with light winds, limiting the diurnal range and supporting the market's near-certain positioning on that outcome. Official forecasts emphasize stable high pressure and modest insolation consistent with seasonal averages near 23°C, with minimal advection of warmer air. The 100% implied probability reflects trader assessment of low forecast uncertainty this close to resolution, as surface observations and nowcasting data align tightly with model runs. Only rapid unexpected increases in cloud cover or a shift in wind patterns could realistically push the verified maximum outside this narrow band.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 4, 2026, 1:02 AM ET
Volume
$180,316End Date
Aug 6, 2026Market Opened
Aug 4, 2026, 1:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Met Office guidance and ensemble model consensus point to a London high of 23°C on August 6 under mostly clear to hazy skies with light winds, limiting the diurnal range and supporting the market's near-certain positioning on that outcome. Official forecasts emphasize stable high pressure and modest insolation consistent with seasonal averages near 23°C, with minimal advection of warmer air. The 100% implied probability reflects trader assessment of low forecast uncertainty this close to resolution, as surface observations and nowcasting data align tightly with model runs. Only rapid unexpected increases in cloud cover or a shift in wind patterns could realistically push the verified maximum outside this narrow band.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$180,316End Date
Aug 6, 2026Market Opened
Aug 4, 2026, 1:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
Recent Met Office guidance and ensemble model consensus point to a London high of 23°C on August 6 under mostly clear to hazy skies with light winds, limiting the diurnal range and supporting the market's near-certain positioning on that outcome. Official forecasts emphasize stable high pressure and modest insolation consistent with seasonal averages near 23°C, with minimal advection of warmer air. The 100% implied probability reflects trader assessment of low forecast uncertainty this close to resolution, as surface observations and nowcasting data align tightly with model runs. Only rapid unexpected increases in cloud cover or a shift in wind patterns could realistically push the verified maximum outside this narrow band.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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