Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 100% implied probability for Istanbul's highest temperature reaching 25°C or higher on May 11, driven by real-time observational data from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) and airport stations showing mid-afternoon readings already at 25-26°C under hazy sunshine and light winds. High-pressure ridging over the eastern Mediterranean has suppressed clouds, enabling rapid daytime heating above the May historical average of 22°C, with model consensus from ECMWF and GFS projecting peaks near 27°C before sunset. Final resolution awaits NOAA-verified highs at Istanbul Airport (LTFM) by midnight local time. Realistic challenges are minimal—only an unforeseen strong sea breeze or convective downdraft could cap temperatures below 25°C, but current trajectories and short remaining daylight render this improbable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on May 11?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on May 11?
25°C or higher 100.0%
15°C or below <1%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
$55,902 Vol.
$55,902 Vol.
May 11, 2026
15°C or below
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C or higher
Yes
25°C or higher 100.0%
15°C or below <1%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
$55,902 Vol.
$55,902 Vol.
May 11, 2026
15°C or below
$366 Vol.
No
16°C
$279 Vol.
No
17°C
$548 Vol.
No
18°C
$2,194 Vol.
No
19°C
$3,179 Vol.
No
20°C
$5,257 Vol.
No
21°C
$5,100 Vol.
No
22°C
$2,774 Vol.
No
23°C
$8,591 Vol.
No
24°C
$12,260 Vol.
No
25°C or higher
$15,354 Vol.
Yes
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 11 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 100% implied probability for Istanbul's highest temperature reaching 25°C or higher on May 11, driven by real-time observational data from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) and airport stations showing mid-afternoon readings already at 25-26°C under hazy sunshine and light winds. High-pressure ridging over the eastern Mediterranean has suppressed clouds, enabling rapid daytime heating above the May historical average of 22°C, with model consensus from ECMWF and GFS projecting peaks near 27°C before sunset. Final resolution awaits NOAA-verified highs at Istanbul Airport (LTFM) by midnight local time. Realistic challenges are minimal—only an unforeseen strong sea breeze or convective downdraft could cap temperatures below 25°C, but current trajectories and short remaining daylight render this improbable.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 11 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 9, 2026, 4:52 AM ET
Volume
$55,902End Date
May 11, 2026Market Opened
May 9, 2026, 4:52 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 11 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 100% implied probability for Istanbul's highest temperature reaching 25°C or higher on May 11, driven by real-time observational data from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) and airport stations showing mid-afternoon readings already at 25-26°C under hazy sunshine and light winds. High-pressure ridging over the eastern Mediterranean has suppressed clouds, enabling rapid daytime heating above the May historical average of 22°C, with model consensus from ECMWF and GFS projecting peaks near 27°C before sunset. Final resolution awaits NOAA-verified highs at Istanbul Airport (LTFM) by midnight local time. Realistic challenges are minimal—only an unforeseen strong sea breeze or convective downdraft could cap temperatures below 25°C, but current trajectories and short remaining daylight render this improbable.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 11 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$55,902End Date
May 11, 2026Market Opened
May 9, 2026, 4:52 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 100% implied probability for Istanbul's highest temperature reaching 25°C or higher on May 11, driven by real-time observational data from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) and airport stations showing mid-afternoon readings already at 25-26°C under hazy sunshine and light winds. High-pressure ridging over the eastern Mediterranean has suppressed clouds, enabling rapid daytime heating above the May historical average of 22°C, with model consensus from ECMWF and GFS projecting peaks near 27°C before sunset. Final resolution awaits NOAA-verified highs at Istanbul Airport (LTFM) by midnight local time. Realistic challenges are minimal—only an unforeseen strong sea breeze or convective downdraft could cap temperatures below 25°C, but current trajectories and short remaining daylight render this improbable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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