Traders assign near-certainty to a 26°C daily maximum in Istanbul on August 21 because real-time station observations and short-range model consensus from sources such as the Turkish Meteorological Service show peak temperatures reaching but not exceeding that level under mostly clear skies and steady northeasterly flow. Moderate winds and relatively high humidity have limited further warming despite seasonal solar input, keeping readings consistent with historical late-August climatology near 28–30°C but tempered by regional pressure patterns. The market-implied odds reflect this convergence of verified data rather than longer-range projections. A realistic challenge would require an unforecast late-day spike or a revision in the official reporting station’s maximum, though current conditions and model agreement make such shifts unlikely before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on August 21?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on August 21?
26°C 100.0%
22°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$28,872 Vol.
$28,872 Vol.
Aug 21, 2026
22°C or below
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
Yes
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C or higher
No
26°C 100.0%
22°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$28,872 Vol.
$28,872 Vol.
Aug 21, 2026
22°C or below
$550 Vol.
No
23°C
$725 Vol.
No
24°C
$444 Vol.
No
25°C
$1,522 Vol.
No
26°C
$11,574 Vol.
Yes
27°C
$5,129 Vol.
No
28°C
$3,929 Vol.
No
29°C
$2,307 Vol.
No
30°C
$1,651 Vol.
No
31°C
$625 Vol.
No
32°C or higher
$418 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign near-certainty to a 26°C daily maximum in Istanbul on August 21 because real-time station observations and short-range model consensus from sources such as the Turkish Meteorological Service show peak temperatures reaching but not exceeding that level under mostly clear skies and steady northeasterly flow. Moderate winds and relatively high humidity have limited further warming despite seasonal solar input, keeping readings consistent with historical late-August climatology near 28–30°C but tempered by regional pressure patterns. The market-implied odds reflect this convergence of verified data rather than longer-range projections. A realistic challenge would require an unforecast late-day spike or a revision in the official reporting station’s maximum, though current conditions and model agreement make such shifts unlikely before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 19, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$28,872End Date
Aug 21, 2026Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign near-certainty to a 26°C daily maximum in Istanbul on August 21 because real-time station observations and short-range model consensus from sources such as the Turkish Meteorological Service show peak temperatures reaching but not exceeding that level under mostly clear skies and steady northeasterly flow. Moderate winds and relatively high humidity have limited further warming despite seasonal solar input, keeping readings consistent with historical late-August climatology near 28–30°C but tempered by regional pressure patterns. The market-implied odds reflect this convergence of verified data rather than longer-range projections. A realistic challenge would require an unforecast late-day spike or a revision in the official reporting station’s maximum, though current conditions and model agreement make such shifts unlikely before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$28,872End Date
Aug 21, 2026Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Traders assign near-certainty to a 26°C daily maximum in Istanbul on August 21 because real-time station observations and short-range model consensus from sources such as the Turkish Meteorological Service show peak temperatures reaching but not exceeding that level under mostly clear skies and steady northeasterly flow. Moderate winds and relatively high humidity have limited further warming despite seasonal solar input, keeping readings consistent with historical late-August climatology near 28–30°C but tempered by regional pressure patterns. The market-implied odds reflect this convergence of verified data rather than longer-range projections. A realistic challenge would require an unforecast late-day spike or a revision in the official reporting station’s maximum, though current conditions and model agreement make such shifts unlikely before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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