Traders have converged on 28°C as the near-certain high for Istanbul on August 12, reflecting stable summer conditions and short-range forecast consensus around the long-term August average of 28°C. Official guidance from agencies such as the Turkish State Meteorological Service and international models shows typical daytime maxima in the 27–30°C range under partly cloudy skies, with no significant heatwave, frontal system, or anomalous advection altering the pattern. Real-time observations throughout the day, including airport and urban station readings, align closely with this value. A late-day surge in insolation or unexpected clear-sky development could push the maximum above 28°C, while increased cloud cover or marine influence might cap it lower, though current model agreement and timing leave little room for such shifts before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on August 12?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on August 12?
28°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$35,468 Vol.
$35,468 Vol.
Aug 12, 2026
23°C or below
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
Yes
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C or higher
No
28°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$35,468 Vol.
$35,468 Vol.
Aug 12, 2026
23°C or below
$379 Vol.
No
24°C
$434 Vol.
No
25°C
$1,652 Vol.
No
26°C
$1,793 Vol.
No
27°C
$6,367 Vol.
No
28°C
$9,702 Vol.
Yes
29°C
$6,243 Vol.
No
30°C
$2,647 Vol.
No
31°C
$3,167 Vol.
No
32°C
$1,273 Vol.
No
33°C or higher
$1,810 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders have converged on 28°C as the near-certain high for Istanbul on August 12, reflecting stable summer conditions and short-range forecast consensus around the long-term August average of 28°C. Official guidance from agencies such as the Turkish State Meteorological Service and international models shows typical daytime maxima in the 27–30°C range under partly cloudy skies, with no significant heatwave, frontal system, or anomalous advection altering the pattern. Real-time observations throughout the day, including airport and urban station readings, align closely with this value. A late-day surge in insolation or unexpected clear-sky development could push the maximum above 28°C, while increased cloud cover or marine influence might cap it lower, though current model agreement and timing leave little room for such shifts before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 10, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Volume
$35,468End Date
Aug 12, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders have converged on 28°C as the near-certain high for Istanbul on August 12, reflecting stable summer conditions and short-range forecast consensus around the long-term August average of 28°C. Official guidance from agencies such as the Turkish State Meteorological Service and international models shows typical daytime maxima in the 27–30°C range under partly cloudy skies, with no significant heatwave, frontal system, or anomalous advection altering the pattern. Real-time observations throughout the day, including airport and urban station readings, align closely with this value. A late-day surge in insolation or unexpected clear-sky development could push the maximum above 28°C, while increased cloud cover or marine influence might cap it lower, though current model agreement and timing leave little room for such shifts before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$35,468End Date
Aug 12, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Traders have converged on 28°C as the near-certain high for Istanbul on August 12, reflecting stable summer conditions and short-range forecast consensus around the long-term August average of 28°C. Official guidance from agencies such as the Turkish State Meteorological Service and international models shows typical daytime maxima in the 27–30°C range under partly cloudy skies, with no significant heatwave, frontal system, or anomalous advection altering the pattern. Real-time observations throughout the day, including airport and urban station readings, align closely with this value. A late-day surge in insolation or unexpected clear-sky development could push the maximum above 28°C, while increased cloud cover or marine influence might cap it lower, though current model agreement and timing leave little room for such shifts before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions