Traders assign 100% implied probability to a 27°C high in Istanbul on August 11 because official meteorological observations and model consensus from agencies tracking the region show the daily maximum stabilizing at this level under typical mid-August conditions. Persistent high pressure, moderate northerly flow, and sea surface temperatures around 24–25°C have limited diurnal warming, aligning with long-term climatological averages of 27–29°C for the date. This outcome reflects verified surface data rather than forecasts alone. A realistic shift would require an unpredicted influx of warmer air masses or instrumentation discrepancies at primary stations, though current atmospheric stability and multiple confirming reports make such deviations improbable before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on August 11?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on August 11?
27°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$42,361 Vol.
$42,361 Vol.
Aug 11, 2026
23°C or below
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
Yes
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C or higher
No
27°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$42,361 Vol.
$42,361 Vol.
Aug 11, 2026
23°C or below
$284 Vol.
No
24°C
$1,155 Vol.
No
25°C
$4,049 Vol.
No
26°C
$6,602 Vol.
No
27°C
$11,200 Vol.
Yes
28°C
$10,200 Vol.
No
29°C
$3,639 Vol.
No
30°C
$1,339 Vol.
No
31°C
$1,377 Vol.
No
32°C
$1,408 Vol.
No
33°C or higher
$1,110 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign 100% implied probability to a 27°C high in Istanbul on August 11 because official meteorological observations and model consensus from agencies tracking the region show the daily maximum stabilizing at this level under typical mid-August conditions. Persistent high pressure, moderate northerly flow, and sea surface temperatures around 24–25°C have limited diurnal warming, aligning with long-term climatological averages of 27–29°C for the date. This outcome reflects verified surface data rather than forecasts alone. A realistic shift would require an unpredicted influx of warmer air masses or instrumentation discrepancies at primary stations, though current atmospheric stability and multiple confirming reports make such deviations improbable before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 9, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
Volume
$42,361End Date
Aug 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 9, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign 100% implied probability to a 27°C high in Istanbul on August 11 because official meteorological observations and model consensus from agencies tracking the region show the daily maximum stabilizing at this level under typical mid-August conditions. Persistent high pressure, moderate northerly flow, and sea surface temperatures around 24–25°C have limited diurnal warming, aligning with long-term climatological averages of 27–29°C for the date. This outcome reflects verified surface data rather than forecasts alone. A realistic shift would require an unpredicted influx of warmer air masses or instrumentation discrepancies at primary stations, though current atmospheric stability and multiple confirming reports make such deviations improbable before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$42,361End Date
Aug 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 9, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Traders assign 100% implied probability to a 27°C high in Istanbul on August 11 because official meteorological observations and model consensus from agencies tracking the region show the daily maximum stabilizing at this level under typical mid-August conditions. Persistent high pressure, moderate northerly flow, and sea surface temperatures around 24–25°C have limited diurnal warming, aligning with long-term climatological averages of 27–29°C for the date. This outcome reflects verified surface data rather than forecasts alone. A realistic shift would require an unpredicted influx of warmer air masses or instrumentation discrepancies at primary stations, though current atmospheric stability and multiple confirming reports make such deviations improbable before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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