Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 12°C as the highest temperature at Istanbul Airport on April 16, 2026, at 100% implied probability, driven by verified NOAA observations from automated weather stations confirming this maximum amid a cold snap. Official data from Turkey's Meteoroloji Genel Müdürlüğü (MGM) corroborates regional highs around 14–16°C at urban stations like Eyüpsultan and Fatih, but the market's resolution source—NOAA's calibrated measurements at the airport—pegged the peak at 12°C under mostly cloudy skies with northerly winds suppressing daytime heating. This aligns with forecasts of temperatures 2–4°C below April norms (typically 16–17°C), influenced by persistent cool air masses over the eastern Mediterranean. Realistic challenges are minimal post-event but could include rare data revisions from quality control audits or discrepancies if alternative stations (e.g., LTBA vs. LTFM) are scrutinized, though resolution criteria fix NOAA Istanbul Airport as authoritative.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on April 16?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on April 16?
12°C 100.0%
10°C or below <1%
11°C <1%
13°C <1%
$84,633 Vol.
$84,633 Vol.
Apr 16, 2026
10°C or below
No
11°C
No
12°C
Yes
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C or higher
No
12°C 100.0%
10°C or below <1%
11°C <1%
13°C <1%
$84,633 Vol.
$84,633 Vol.
Apr 16, 2026
10°C or below
$3,736 Vol.
No
11°C
$8,074 Vol.
No
12°C
$16,395 Vol.
Yes
13°C
$7,157 Vol.
No
14°C
$4,607 Vol.
No
15°C
$18,849 Vol.
No
16°C
$17,015 Vol.
No
17°C
$6,498 Vol.
No
18°C
$849 Vol.
No
19°C
$813 Vol.
No
20°C or higher
$641 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 12°C as the highest temperature at Istanbul Airport on April 16, 2026, at 100% implied probability, driven by verified NOAA observations from automated weather stations confirming this maximum amid a cold snap. Official data from Turkey's Meteoroloji Genel Müdürlüğü (MGM) corroborates regional highs around 14–16°C at urban stations like Eyüpsultan and Fatih, but the market's resolution source—NOAA's calibrated measurements at the airport—pegged the peak at 12°C under mostly cloudy skies with northerly winds suppressing daytime heating. This aligns with forecasts of temperatures 2–4°C below April norms (typically 16–17°C), influenced by persistent cool air masses over the eastern Mediterranean. Realistic challenges are minimal post-event but could include rare data revisions from quality control audits or discrepancies if alternative stations (e.g., LTBA vs. LTFM) are scrutinized, though resolution criteria fix NOAA Istanbul Airport as authoritative.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 14, 2026, 6:23 PM ET
Volume
$84,633End Date
Apr 16, 2026Market Opened
Apr 14, 2026, 6:23 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 12°C as the highest temperature at Istanbul Airport on April 16, 2026, at 100% implied probability, driven by verified NOAA observations from automated weather stations confirming this maximum amid a cold snap. Official data from Turkey's Meteoroloji Genel Müdürlüğü (MGM) corroborates regional highs around 14–16°C at urban stations like Eyüpsultan and Fatih, but the market's resolution source—NOAA's calibrated measurements at the airport—pegged the peak at 12°C under mostly cloudy skies with northerly winds suppressing daytime heating. This aligns with forecasts of temperatures 2–4°C below April norms (typically 16–17°C), influenced by persistent cool air masses over the eastern Mediterranean. Realistic challenges are minimal post-event but could include rare data revisions from quality control audits or discrepancies if alternative stations (e.g., LTBA vs. LTFM) are scrutinized, though resolution criteria fix NOAA Istanbul Airport as authoritative.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$84,633End Date
Apr 16, 2026Market Opened
Apr 14, 2026, 6:23 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 12°C as the highest temperature at Istanbul Airport on April 16, 2026, at 100% implied probability, driven by verified NOAA observations from automated weather stations confirming this maximum amid a cold snap. Official data from Turkey's Meteoroloji Genel Müdürlüğü (MGM) corroborates regional highs around 14–16°C at urban stations like Eyüpsultan and Fatih, but the market's resolution source—NOAA's calibrated measurements at the airport—pegged the peak at 12°C under mostly cloudy skies with northerly winds suppressing daytime heating. This aligns with forecasts of temperatures 2–4°C below April norms (typically 16–17°C), influenced by persistent cool air masses over the eastern Mediterranean. Realistic challenges are minimal post-event but could include rare data revisions from quality control audits or discrepancies if alternative stations (e.g., LTBA vs. LTFM) are scrutinized, though resolution criteria fix NOAA Istanbul Airport as authoritative.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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