Official observations from National Weather Service stations, including Houston Intercontinental and Hobby Airport, recorded a daily maximum of 92–93°F on September 16, 2026, aligning precisely with the market’s 100% implied probability for that bin. Mid-September climatology for the region shows average highs near 89°F, but persistent late-summer warmth, elevated dew points, and the absence of a strong frontal passage kept readings in the low-to-mid 90s. Model guidance issued the prior day projected similar values with low uncertainty, and post-event verification confirmed no station exceeded or fell below the 92–93°F threshold. Only an anomalous localized cooling event or revised quality-control adjustment could alter the outcome, both highly improbable once preliminary climatological data are finalized.