Official measurements from National Weather Service stations, including Houston Hobby Airport, recorded a daily maximum of 94–95°F on September 15, 2026, under mostly clear skies with light southeast winds and high humidity that produced heat indices near 107°F. This outcome aligned with model consensus from prior days showing mid-90s highs amid a persistent warm, moist airmass, exceeding the September normal of about 89°F but falling short of record territory. Trader consensus at near-100% on that bin reflects verification against these authoritative observations rather than forecasts. Shifts in station selection, post-analysis quality control revisions, or differing definitions of “Houston” boundaries could theoretically alter the final figure, though such adjustments are uncommon for daily maxima.