Hong Kong Observatory forecasts and supporting regional models positioned a daily maximum near 32°C for August 17, 2026, as the most probable outcome, driven by increased cloud cover and scattered showers that suppressed afternoon heating. Typical August climatology shows highs around 31–32°C under humid subtropical conditions, with the Hong Kong Observatory’s seasonal outlook of normal to above-normal temperatures providing broader context amid ongoing climate warming trends. Resolution hinged on the official headquarters station reading, where even modest increases in convective activity or monsoon flow could lower peaks by 1–2°C. Scenarios that could have realistically challenged the 32°C consensus included clearer skies allowing greater solar insolation or delayed thunderstorm development, though model consensus and observed conditions aligned closely with the market-implied outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Hong Kong on August 17?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 17?
32°C 100.0%
28°C or below <1%
29°C <1%
30°C <1%
$172,470 Vol.
$172,470 Vol.
Aug 17, 2026
28°C or below
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
Yes
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C
No
37°C
No
38°C or higher
No
32°C 100.0%
28°C or below <1%
29°C <1%
30°C <1%
$172,470 Vol.
$172,470 Vol.
Aug 17, 2026
28°C or below
$596 Vol.
No
29°C
$2,423 Vol.
No
30°C
$5,546 Vol.
No
31°C
$34,575 Vol.
No
32°C
$34,917 Vol.
Yes
33°C
$41,892 Vol.
No
34°C
$23,442 Vol.
No
35°C
$21,065 Vol.
No
36°C
$6,483 Vol.
No
37°C
$783 Vol.
No
38°C or higher
$748 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Hong Kong Observatory forecasts and supporting regional models positioned a daily maximum near 32°C for August 17, 2026, as the most probable outcome, driven by increased cloud cover and scattered showers that suppressed afternoon heating. Typical August climatology shows highs around 31–32°C under humid subtropical conditions, with the Hong Kong Observatory’s seasonal outlook of normal to above-normal temperatures providing broader context amid ongoing climate warming trends. Resolution hinged on the official headquarters station reading, where even modest increases in convective activity or monsoon flow could lower peaks by 1–2°C. Scenarios that could have realistically challenged the 32°C consensus included clearer skies allowing greater solar insolation or delayed thunderstorm development, though model consensus and observed conditions aligned closely with the market-implied outcome.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Aug 15, 2026, 4:05 PM ET
Volume
$172,470End Date
Aug 17, 2026Market Opened
Aug 15, 2026, 4:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Hong Kong Observatory forecasts and supporting regional models positioned a daily maximum near 32°C for August 17, 2026, as the most probable outcome, driven by increased cloud cover and scattered showers that suppressed afternoon heating. Typical August climatology shows highs around 31–32°C under humid subtropical conditions, with the Hong Kong Observatory’s seasonal outlook of normal to above-normal temperatures providing broader context amid ongoing climate warming trends. Resolution hinged on the official headquarters station reading, where even modest increases in convective activity or monsoon flow could lower peaks by 1–2°C. Scenarios that could have realistically challenged the 32°C consensus included clearer skies allowing greater solar insolation or delayed thunderstorm development, though model consensus and observed conditions aligned closely with the market-implied outcome.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$172,470End Date
Aug 17, 2026Market Opened
Aug 15, 2026, 4:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Hong Kong Observatory forecasts and supporting regional models positioned a daily maximum near 32°C for August 17, 2026, as the most probable outcome, driven by increased cloud cover and scattered showers that suppressed afternoon heating. Typical August climatology shows highs around 31–32°C under humid subtropical conditions, with the Hong Kong Observatory’s seasonal outlook of normal to above-normal temperatures providing broader context amid ongoing climate warming trends. Resolution hinged on the official headquarters station reading, where even modest increases in convective activity or monsoon flow could lower peaks by 1–2°C. Scenarios that could have realistically challenged the 32°C consensus included clearer skies allowing greater solar insolation or delayed thunderstorm development, though model consensus and observed conditions aligned closely with the market-implied outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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