Official measurements from the Hong Kong Observatory recorded a maximum temperature of 35°C on August 11, 2026, anchoring the market-implied odds at near-certainty for that outcome. This reflects the observatory’s standard reference at its Tsim Sha Tsui headquarters under ongoing heatwave conditions influenced by regional atmospheric patterns and residual effects from Tropical Cyclone Dolphin. Model consensus and observational data showed limited intensification potential that day, with forecasts consistently pointing to highs near or at 35°C before any late showers developed. Historical August baselines around 32°C and the recent record spike to 36.9°C on August 9 provide context for the slight moderation. The only realistic challenges would involve post hoc data revisions or discrepancies between official headquarters readings and regional stations, though such adjustments remain rare once preliminary records are validated.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Hong Kong on August 11?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 11?
35°C 100.0%
30°C or below <1%
31°C <1%
32°C <1%
$366,871 Vol.
$366,871 Vol.
Aug 11, 2026
30°C or below
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C
Yes
36°C
No
37°C
No
38°C
No
39°C
No
40°C or higher
No
35°C 100.0%
30°C or below <1%
31°C <1%
32°C <1%
$366,871 Vol.
$366,871 Vol.
Aug 11, 2026
30°C or below
$1,204 Vol.
No
31°C
$3,624 Vol.
No
32°C
$65,339 Vol.
No
33°C
$102,627 Vol.
No
34°C
$78,516 Vol.
No
35°C
$53,963 Vol.
Yes
36°C
$31,830 Vol.
No
37°C
$22,668 Vol.
No
38°C
$5,784 Vol.
No
39°C
$656 Vol.
No
40°C or higher
$659 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official measurements from the Hong Kong Observatory recorded a maximum temperature of 35°C on August 11, 2026, anchoring the market-implied odds at near-certainty for that outcome. This reflects the observatory’s standard reference at its Tsim Sha Tsui headquarters under ongoing heatwave conditions influenced by regional atmospheric patterns and residual effects from Tropical Cyclone Dolphin. Model consensus and observational data showed limited intensification potential that day, with forecasts consistently pointing to highs near or at 35°C before any late showers developed. Historical August baselines around 32°C and the recent record spike to 36.9°C on August 9 provide context for the slight moderation. The only realistic challenges would involve post hoc data revisions or discrepancies between official headquarters readings and regional stations, though such adjustments remain rare once preliminary records are validated.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Aug 9, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$366,871End Date
Aug 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 9, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official measurements from the Hong Kong Observatory recorded a maximum temperature of 35°C on August 11, 2026, anchoring the market-implied odds at near-certainty for that outcome. This reflects the observatory’s standard reference at its Tsim Sha Tsui headquarters under ongoing heatwave conditions influenced by regional atmospheric patterns and residual effects from Tropical Cyclone Dolphin. Model consensus and observational data showed limited intensification potential that day, with forecasts consistently pointing to highs near or at 35°C before any late showers developed. Historical August baselines around 32°C and the recent record spike to 36.9°C on August 9 provide context for the slight moderation. The only realistic challenges would involve post hoc data revisions or discrepancies between official headquarters readings and regional stations, though such adjustments remain rare once preliminary records are validated.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$366,871End Date
Aug 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 9, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Official measurements from the Hong Kong Observatory recorded a maximum temperature of 35°C on August 11, 2026, anchoring the market-implied odds at near-certainty for that outcome. This reflects the observatory’s standard reference at its Tsim Sha Tsui headquarters under ongoing heatwave conditions influenced by regional atmospheric patterns and residual effects from Tropical Cyclone Dolphin. Model consensus and observational data showed limited intensification potential that day, with forecasts consistently pointing to highs near or at 35°C before any late showers developed. Historical August baselines around 32°C and the recent record spike to 36.9°C on August 9 provide context for the slight moderation. The only realistic challenges would involve post hoc data revisions or discrepancies between official headquarters readings and regional stations, though such adjustments remain rare once preliminary records are validated.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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