Recent short-term forecast models from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration and international ensembles project Guangzhou reaching a daily maximum of 35°C on September 5, driven by a warm, humid subtropical air mass over the Pearl River Delta, light winds reducing vertical mixing, and daytime solar heating despite scattered thunderstorm activity. This aligns with early-September climatology for the region, where highs typically range 32–34°C. The market’s near-100% implied probability for 35°C reflects tight model consensus and limited upside risk for 37°C or higher. A stronger-than-forecast convective outbreak or unexpected influx of cooler marine air could lower the peak, though current guidance shows low probability of such shifts before resolution.