The market's near-certain pricing on 31°C reflects official observations and multiple real-time weather station reports confirming that as Guangzhou's daily maximum on September 16, 2026, under partly cloudy conditions with light rain and southeasterly flow. This aligns closely with the 1991–2020 climatological average high of 31.9°C for the date while falling well below historical extremes such as the 35.6°C record set in 2021. Model consensus from sources including NOAA-linked forecasts and local monitoring showed limited afternoon heating due to cloud cover and precipitation suppressing further rises. Resolution hinges on verified station data meeting the exact threshold; minor adjustments in post-processing or differing station networks could theoretically shift the recorded high, though current convergence across datasets leaves negligible room for alternative outcomes.