Trader consensus has locked in a near-certain 100% implied probability for a 32°C high in Guangzhou on May 12, driven by confirmed observational data from the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport station— the market's official resolution source under China Meteorological Administration protocols—recording a peak of 32°C during early afternoon amid persistent cloud cover and 70-80% humidity that sharply limited solar insolation and convective heating. This aligns with updated ECMWF and local forecast models projecting a cap at 32-33°C following a week-long cool spell with prior highs of 27-31°C, below May climatological averages of 29-30°C. Diurnal cooling has set in with evening readings dropping to 30°C under overcast skies, making further spikes unlikely; realistic challenges include brief clearing allowing a 1°C surge before sunset, though current atmospheric stability and declining solar angle render this improbable, with final CMA data expected post-midnight.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Guangzhou on May 12?
Highest temperature in Guangzhou on May 12?
32°C 100.0%
26°C or below <1%
27°C <1%
28°C <1%
$38,335 Vol.
$38,335 Vol.
May 12, 2026
26°C or below
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
Yes
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C or higher
No
32°C 100.0%
26°C or below <1%
27°C <1%
28°C <1%
$38,335 Vol.
$38,335 Vol.
May 12, 2026
26°C or below
$959 Vol.
No
27°C
$885 Vol.
No
28°C
$2,007 Vol.
No
29°C
$2,019 Vol.
No
30°C
$2,043 Vol.
No
31°C
$4,954 Vol.
No
32°C
$6,862 Vol.
Yes
33°C
$3,525 Vol.
No
34°C
$3,363 Vol.
No
35°C
$6,837 Vol.
No
36°C or higher
$4,880 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus has locked in a near-certain 100% implied probability for a 32°C high in Guangzhou on May 12, driven by confirmed observational data from the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport station— the market's official resolution source under China Meteorological Administration protocols—recording a peak of 32°C during early afternoon amid persistent cloud cover and 70-80% humidity that sharply limited solar insolation and convective heating. This aligns with updated ECMWF and local forecast models projecting a cap at 32-33°C following a week-long cool spell with prior highs of 27-31°C, below May climatological averages of 29-30°C. Diurnal cooling has set in with evening readings dropping to 30°C under overcast skies, making further spikes unlikely; realistic challenges include brief clearing allowing a 1°C surge before sunset, though current atmospheric stability and declining solar angle render this improbable, with final CMA data expected post-midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 10, 2026, 12:25 AM ET
Volume
$38,335End Date
May 12, 2026Market Opened
May 10, 2026, 12:25 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus has locked in a near-certain 100% implied probability for a 32°C high in Guangzhou on May 12, driven by confirmed observational data from the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport station— the market's official resolution source under China Meteorological Administration protocols—recording a peak of 32°C during early afternoon amid persistent cloud cover and 70-80% humidity that sharply limited solar insolation and convective heating. This aligns with updated ECMWF and local forecast models projecting a cap at 32-33°C following a week-long cool spell with prior highs of 27-31°C, below May climatological averages of 29-30°C. Diurnal cooling has set in with evening readings dropping to 30°C under overcast skies, making further spikes unlikely; realistic challenges include brief clearing allowing a 1°C surge before sunset, though current atmospheric stability and declining solar angle render this improbable, with final CMA data expected post-midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$38,335End Date
May 12, 2026Market Opened
May 10, 2026, 12:25 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus has locked in a near-certain 100% implied probability for a 32°C high in Guangzhou on May 12, driven by confirmed observational data from the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport station— the market's official resolution source under China Meteorological Administration protocols—recording a peak of 32°C during early afternoon amid persistent cloud cover and 70-80% humidity that sharply limited solar insolation and convective heating. This aligns with updated ECMWF and local forecast models projecting a cap at 32-33°C following a week-long cool spell with prior highs of 27-31°C, below May climatological averages of 29-30°C. Diurnal cooling has set in with evening readings dropping to 30°C under overcast skies, making further spikes unlikely; realistic challenges include brief clearing allowing a 1°C surge before sunset, though current atmospheric stability and declining solar angle render this improbable, with final CMA data expected post-midnight.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions