Recent meteorological forecasts from agencies monitoring the Pearl River Delta indicate Guangzhou's August 9 high will reach 38°C amid persistent subtropical monsoon conditions, high humidity, and minimal cloud cover that favor peak daytime heating. This aligns with historical August averages near 33°C but reflects current model consensus showing localized warming without significant typhoon or frontal interference. Trader consensus at near-100% implied probability for the 38°C outcome stems from skin-in-the-game assessment of these stable atmospheric patterns and limited upside potential beyond observed trends. Scenarios that could challenge this include unexpected convective showers or a rapid shift in steering winds that cap temperatures below the threshold, though latest model runs show low probability of such changes before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Guangzhou on August 9?
Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 9?
38°C 100.0%
31°C or below <1%
32°C <1%
33°C <1%
$51,181 Vol.
$51,181 Vol.
Aug 9, 2026
31°C or below
No
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C
No
37°C
No
38°C
Yes
39°C
No
40°C
No
41°C or higher
No
38°C 100.0%
31°C or below <1%
32°C <1%
33°C <1%
$51,181 Vol.
$51,181 Vol.
Aug 9, 2026
31°C or below
$549 Vol.
No
32°C
$695 Vol.
No
33°C
$1,363 Vol.
No
34°C
$1,351 Vol.
No
35°C
$2,601 Vol.
No
36°C
$5,730 Vol.
No
37°C
$9,437 Vol.
No
38°C
$9,877 Vol.
Yes
39°C
$7,650 Vol.
No
40°C
$7,112 Vol.
No
41°C or higher
$4,816 Vol.
No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent meteorological forecasts from agencies monitoring the Pearl River Delta indicate Guangzhou's August 9 high will reach 38°C amid persistent subtropical monsoon conditions, high humidity, and minimal cloud cover that favor peak daytime heating. This aligns with historical August averages near 33°C but reflects current model consensus showing localized warming without significant typhoon or frontal interference. Trader consensus at near-100% implied probability for the 38°C outcome stems from skin-in-the-game assessment of these stable atmospheric patterns and limited upside potential beyond observed trends. Scenarios that could challenge this include unexpected convective showers or a rapid shift in steering winds that cap temperatures below the threshold, though latest model runs show low probability of such changes before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 7, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$51,181End Date
Aug 9, 2026Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent meteorological forecasts from agencies monitoring the Pearl River Delta indicate Guangzhou's August 9 high will reach 38°C amid persistent subtropical monsoon conditions, high humidity, and minimal cloud cover that favor peak daytime heating. This aligns with historical August averages near 33°C but reflects current model consensus showing localized warming without significant typhoon or frontal interference. Trader consensus at near-100% implied probability for the 38°C outcome stems from skin-in-the-game assessment of these stable atmospheric patterns and limited upside potential beyond observed trends. Scenarios that could challenge this include unexpected convective showers or a rapid shift in steering winds that cap temperatures below the threshold, though latest model runs show low probability of such changes before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$51,181End Date
Aug 9, 2026Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Recent meteorological forecasts from agencies monitoring the Pearl River Delta indicate Guangzhou's August 9 high will reach 38°C amid persistent subtropical monsoon conditions, high humidity, and minimal cloud cover that favor peak daytime heating. This aligns with historical August averages near 33°C but reflects current model consensus showing localized warming without significant typhoon or frontal interference. Trader consensus at near-100% implied probability for the 38°C outcome stems from skin-in-the-game assessment of these stable atmospheric patterns and limited upside potential beyond observed trends. Scenarios that could challenge this include unexpected convective showers or a rapid shift in steering winds that cap temperatures below the threshold, though latest model runs show low probability of such changes before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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