Official National Weather Service observations recorded a daily maximum of 100°F at Dallas/Fort Worth on September 5, 2026, exceeding the normal high of 93°F by 8°F under clear skies, southerly flow near 7 mph, and negligible precipitation. Market-implied odds heavily favor the 98-99°F bin because pre-event model consensus from the GFS and local guidance projected peak temperatures in that range, consistent with climatological September patterns and the absence of strong warm advection or downslope enhancement. The slim probability assigned to 100-101°F reflects realistic uncertainty in afternoon mixing depth and boundary-layer heating, which can produce 1-3°F variations between forecast and verified readings at the official station. Updated model runs and real-time mesonet data would be the key catalysts capable of shifting the narrow remaining uncertainty before final resolution.