**Trader consensus has coalesced around the 98-99°F outcome at essentially 100% implied probability following official observations of Dallas’s daily high on September 10, 2026.** Forecast models from the National Weather Service and private sources had projected upper-90s readings under partly cloudy skies with light southerly flow and modest humidity, consistent with late-summer climatology for the region. The recorded maximum aligned precisely with that guidance and historical analogs for early-September warm spells. Because the market resolves on verified station data rather than forecasts, the narrow bin captured the actual measurement with no meaningful uncertainty remaining. Only an unforeseen post-observation revision or station-specific discrepancy could alter the result, both of which are statistically rare once preliminary climatological reports are released.