**Forecast consensus from the China Meteorological Administration and international models has locked in a 35°C daily high for Chengdu on September 6, 2026, under mostly cloudy skies with limited afternoon precipitation.** Recent observations confirm temperatures rising steadily through the morning and peaking near this level by early afternoon, consistent with the warm, humid late-summer pattern that produced a 36°C reading the prior day. Traders assign 100% implied probability because multiple data streams—surface observations, ensemble guidance, and regional outlooks—show no realistic path to a meaningfully different maximum. The primary variables that could still shift the recorded high are the exact timing or intensity of any scattered showers, which might cap the peak a degree or two lower, or minor differences in how the official reporting station registers its maximum.