**Trader consensus has coalesced on 21°C as the day's highest temperature in Chengdu, reflecting official meteorological observations confirming that peak amid widespread cloud cover and intermittent showers.** Persistent rain and high humidity suppressed daytime warming, consistent with mid-September climatology in the Sichuan Basin where seasonal cooling and frontal activity typically limit highs to the upper teens or low 20s Celsius. Model guidance from regional forecasts aligned closely with this outcome, showing limited potential for brief breaks in the overcast that might have allowed a spike to 22°C or above. The near-certain market pricing underscores the low likelihood of revision once final station data are verified, though minor adjustments could arise from differences between airport and urban monitoring sites or post-analysis quality control. No major forecast shifts occurred in the final 48 hours to alter this trajectory.