Traders have converged on 22°C as the certain outcome for Chengdu’s daily maximum temperature on September 12, 2026, driven by real-time surface observations and official station data that show the peak reached precisely that level under persistent cloud cover and light northerly flow. Multiple forecast models, including those from the China Meteorological Administration and international ensembles, consistently indicated a narrow range around 20–24°C amid high humidity and minimal solar heating, aligning with the market-implied odds. This skin-in-the-game consensus reflects the low uncertainty once afternoon readings confirmed no further rise. Only an unexpected late-day surge from clearing skies or station-specific microclimate effects could have altered the result, but current conditions rendered such shifts improbable.