Persistent cloud cover, widespread rain, and thunderstorms are suppressing maximum temperatures in Chengdu on August 18, 2026, anchoring the market at a 100% implied probability for a 23°C high. Official forecasts, including those from the UK Met Office, project this daytime maximum under overcast skies with heavy precipitation, while early-day observations registered near 22°C. This marks a sharp departure from typical mid-August subtropical monsoon conditions that usually produce highs of 30–34°C through strong solar insolation. Northerly flow and ongoing convective activity limit surface heating and enhance evaporative cooling. A rapid clearing of clouds or weaker-than-expected rainfall could allow additional warming toward 24°C, though current model consensus and real-time observations make such shifts improbable before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chengdu on August 18?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 18?
23°C 100.0%
20°C or below <1%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
$92,115 Vol.
$92,115 Vol.
Aug 18, 2026
20°C or below
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
Yes
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C or higher
No
23°C 100.0%
20°C or below <1%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
$92,115 Vol.
$92,115 Vol.
Aug 18, 2026
20°C or below
$635 Vol.
No
21°C
$3,766 Vol.
No
22°C
$8,745 Vol.
No
23°C
$26,859 Vol.
Yes
24°C
$12,628 Vol.
No
25°C
$10,953 Vol.
No
26°C
$9,090 Vol.
No
27°C
$5,406 Vol.
No
28°C
$3,251 Vol.
No
29°C
$3,586 Vol.
No
30°C or higher
$7,197 Vol.
No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent cloud cover, widespread rain, and thunderstorms are suppressing maximum temperatures in Chengdu on August 18, 2026, anchoring the market at a 100% implied probability for a 23°C high. Official forecasts, including those from the UK Met Office, project this daytime maximum under overcast skies with heavy precipitation, while early-day observations registered near 22°C. This marks a sharp departure from typical mid-August subtropical monsoon conditions that usually produce highs of 30–34°C through strong solar insolation. Northerly flow and ongoing convective activity limit surface heating and enhance evaporative cooling. A rapid clearing of clouds or weaker-than-expected rainfall could allow additional warming toward 24°C, though current model consensus and real-time observations make such shifts improbable before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$92,115End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
Aug 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent cloud cover, widespread rain, and thunderstorms are suppressing maximum temperatures in Chengdu on August 18, 2026, anchoring the market at a 100% implied probability for a 23°C high. Official forecasts, including those from the UK Met Office, project this daytime maximum under overcast skies with heavy precipitation, while early-day observations registered near 22°C. This marks a sharp departure from typical mid-August subtropical monsoon conditions that usually produce highs of 30–34°C through strong solar insolation. Northerly flow and ongoing convective activity limit surface heating and enhance evaporative cooling. A rapid clearing of clouds or weaker-than-expected rainfall could allow additional warming toward 24°C, though current model consensus and real-time observations make such shifts improbable before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$92,115End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
Aug 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Persistent cloud cover, widespread rain, and thunderstorms are suppressing maximum temperatures in Chengdu on August 18, 2026, anchoring the market at a 100% implied probability for a 23°C high. Official forecasts, including those from the UK Met Office, project this daytime maximum under overcast skies with heavy precipitation, while early-day observations registered near 22°C. This marks a sharp departure from typical mid-August subtropical monsoon conditions that usually produce highs of 30–34°C through strong solar insolation. Northerly flow and ongoing convective activity limit surface heating and enhance evaporative cooling. A rapid clearing of clouds or weaker-than-expected rainfall could allow additional warming toward 24°C, though current model consensus and real-time observations make such shifts improbable before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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