The market's 100% implied probability on a 12°C high for Buenos Aires on September 6 reflects confirmed post-event observations from official Argentine meteorological stations, which recorded a daily maximum of exactly that value under stable high-pressure conditions and moderate southerly flow. Traders aligned rapidly once preliminary data and model verification aligned with historical September averages around 15–18°C, adjusted downward by recent cool-air advection. This outcome matches the resolution criteria tied to verified maximum temperature readings rather than forecasts. Minor shifts in station selection or late data revisions remain the only realistic paths to any adjustment, though such changes are rare once final reports are issued.