Official meteorological observations for Buenos Aires on September 17, 2026, recorded a daily maximum temperature at or above 26°C, establishing the market outcome with near-certainty as reflected in the 100% implied probability. This consensus aligns with real-time data from authoritative sources such as the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional, confirming the high exceeded the 25°C threshold amid typical late-winter warming patterns in the region. Historical September averages for the city hover around 18–20°C, making the observed anomaly notable but consistent with recent seasonal variability. The sole realistic challenge to resolution would involve a rare post-event revision to the official record due to station calibration issues or data quality checks, though such adjustments are infrequent and unlikely to alter the outcome at this stage.