Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability for Austin's highest temperature reaching 78°F or higher on May 13, driven by National Weather Service forecasts calling for sunny skies and highs near 90-92°F at Austin-Bergstrom International Airport (KAUS), the market's resolution site. Morning observations show temperatures starting in the low 60s°F around 7 a.m. CDT, with a building ridge of high pressure promoting efficient daytime heating via strong insolation and light southeast winds under mostly clear conditions. This aligns with May climatology, where average highs near 87°F are common, and recent model consensus from NOAA's Global Forecast System reinforces the warm outlook following a brief cool-down earlier in the week. Realistic challenges would require an unforeseen influx of cooler air or persistent cloud cover, both unlikely per current guidance, with hourly updates from NWS expected through afternoon peak heating around 3-5 p.m. CDT.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Austin on May 13?
Highest temperature in Austin on May 13?
78°F or higher 100.0%
59°F or below <1%
60-61°F <1%
62-63°F <1%
$152,217 Vol.
$152,217 Vol.
May 13, 2026
59°F or below
No
60-61°F
No
62-63°F
No
64-65°F
No
66-67°F
No
68-69°F
No
70-71°F
No
72-73°F
No
74-75°F
No
76-77°F
No
78°F or higher
Yes
78°F or higher 100.0%
59°F or below <1%
60-61°F <1%
62-63°F <1%
$152,217 Vol.
$152,217 Vol.
May 13, 2026
59°F or below
$21,235 Vol.
No
60-61°F
$13,173 Vol.
No
62-63°F
$9,545 Vol.
No
64-65°F
$10,300 Vol.
No
66-67°F
$9,034 Vol.
No
68-69°F
$9,023 Vol.
No
70-71°F
$11,040 Vol.
No
72-73°F
$11,811 Vol.
No
74-75°F
$8,421 Vol.
No
76-77°F
$14,764 Vol.
No
78°F or higher
$33,871 Vol.
Yes
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 13 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability for Austin's highest temperature reaching 78°F or higher on May 13, driven by National Weather Service forecasts calling for sunny skies and highs near 90-92°F at Austin-Bergstrom International Airport (KAUS), the market's resolution site. Morning observations show temperatures starting in the low 60s°F around 7 a.m. CDT, with a building ridge of high pressure promoting efficient daytime heating via strong insolation and light southeast winds under mostly clear conditions. This aligns with May climatology, where average highs near 87°F are common, and recent model consensus from NOAA's Global Forecast System reinforces the warm outlook following a brief cool-down earlier in the week. Realistic challenges would require an unforeseen influx of cooler air or persistent cloud cover, both unlikely per current guidance, with hourly updates from NWS expected through afternoon peak heating around 3-5 p.m. CDT.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 13 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 11, 2026, 12:26 AM ET
Volume
$152,217End Date
May 13, 2026Market Opened
May 11, 2026, 12:26 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 13 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability for Austin's highest temperature reaching 78°F or higher on May 13, driven by National Weather Service forecasts calling for sunny skies and highs near 90-92°F at Austin-Bergstrom International Airport (KAUS), the market's resolution site. Morning observations show temperatures starting in the low 60s°F around 7 a.m. CDT, with a building ridge of high pressure promoting efficient daytime heating via strong insolation and light southeast winds under mostly clear conditions. This aligns with May climatology, where average highs near 87°F are common, and recent model consensus from NOAA's Global Forecast System reinforces the warm outlook following a brief cool-down earlier in the week. Realistic challenges would require an unforeseen influx of cooler air or persistent cloud cover, both unlikely per current guidance, with hourly updates from NWS expected through afternoon peak heating around 3-5 p.m. CDT.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 13 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$152,217End Date
May 13, 2026Market Opened
May 11, 2026, 12:26 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability for Austin's highest temperature reaching 78°F or higher on May 13, driven by National Weather Service forecasts calling for sunny skies and highs near 90-92°F at Austin-Bergstrom International Airport (KAUS), the market's resolution site. Morning observations show temperatures starting in the low 60s°F around 7 a.m. CDT, with a building ridge of high pressure promoting efficient daytime heating via strong insolation and light southeast winds under mostly clear conditions. This aligns with May climatology, where average highs near 87°F are common, and recent model consensus from NOAA's Global Forecast System reinforces the warm outlook following a brief cool-down earlier in the week. Realistic challenges would require an unforeseen influx of cooler air or persistent cloud cover, both unlikely per current guidance, with hourly updates from NWS expected through afternoon peak heating around 3-5 p.m. CDT.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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