Forecast consensus from KNMI and Met Office models supports the near-certain 21°C market outcome for Amsterdam’s daily maximum on August 17, driven by post-heatwave cooling, a northwest airflow bringing cooler North Sea air, and extensive cloud cover with light showers that limit solar heating. Current observations and model runs show daytime peaks stabilizing near 20–21°C, well below August climatological averages in the mid-20s. This positioning reflects traders’ assessment of stable atmospheric conditions and official guidance through the resolution window. An unexpected rapid clearing of clouds or stronger southerly flow could allow brief warming to 22°C or above, though such shifts remain low-probability given the entrenched marine influence and persistent overcast.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Amsterdam on August 17?
Highest temperature in Amsterdam on August 17?
21°C 100.0%
16°C or below <1%
17°C <1%
18°C <1%
$85,264 Vol.
$85,264 Vol.
Aug 17, 2026
16°C or below
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
Yes
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C or higher
No
21°C 100.0%
16°C or below <1%
17°C <1%
18°C <1%
$85,264 Vol.
$85,264 Vol.
Aug 17, 2026
16°C or below
$527 Vol.
No
17°C
$6,639 Vol.
No
18°C
$5,561 Vol.
No
19°C
$9,447 Vol.
No
20°C
$22,331 Vol.
No
21°C
$14,278 Vol.
Yes
22°C
$11,965 Vol.
No
23°C
$10,971 Vol.
No
24°C
$2,334 Vol.
No
25°C
$557 Vol.
No
26°C or higher
$654 Vol.
No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast consensus from KNMI and Met Office models supports the near-certain 21°C market outcome for Amsterdam’s daily maximum on August 17, driven by post-heatwave cooling, a northwest airflow bringing cooler North Sea air, and extensive cloud cover with light showers that limit solar heating. Current observations and model runs show daytime peaks stabilizing near 20–21°C, well below August climatological averages in the mid-20s. This positioning reflects traders’ assessment of stable atmospheric conditions and official guidance through the resolution window. An unexpected rapid clearing of clouds or stronger southerly flow could allow brief warming to 22°C or above, though such shifts remain low-probability given the entrenched marine influence and persistent overcast.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 15, 2026, 4:07 PM ET
Volume
$85,264End Date
Aug 17, 2026Market Opened
Aug 15, 2026, 4:07 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast consensus from KNMI and Met Office models supports the near-certain 21°C market outcome for Amsterdam’s daily maximum on August 17, driven by post-heatwave cooling, a northwest airflow bringing cooler North Sea air, and extensive cloud cover with light showers that limit solar heating. Current observations and model runs show daytime peaks stabilizing near 20–21°C, well below August climatological averages in the mid-20s. This positioning reflects traders’ assessment of stable atmospheric conditions and official guidance through the resolution window. An unexpected rapid clearing of clouds or stronger southerly flow could allow brief warming to 22°C or above, though such shifts remain low-probability given the entrenched marine influence and persistent overcast.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$85,264End Date
Aug 17, 2026Market Opened
Aug 15, 2026, 4:07 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Forecast consensus from KNMI and Met Office models supports the near-certain 21°C market outcome for Amsterdam’s daily maximum on August 17, driven by post-heatwave cooling, a northwest airflow bringing cooler North Sea air, and extensive cloud cover with light showers that limit solar heating. Current observations and model runs show daytime peaks stabilizing near 20–21°C, well below August climatological averages in the mid-20s. This positioning reflects traders’ assessment of stable atmospheric conditions and official guidance through the resolution window. An unexpected rapid clearing of clouds or stronger southerly flow could allow brief warming to 22°C or above, though such shifts remain low-probability given the entrenched marine influence and persistent overcast.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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