Official forecasts from agencies such as the UK Met Office and KNMI project a daytime maximum of 22°C for Amsterdam on August 11, 2026, under sunny to partly cloudy skies, light northeasterly winds, and negligible precipitation risk. This aligns closely with mid-August climatology, where average highs near 22°C reflect typical North Sea moderation and stable high-pressure patterns. Traders have consolidated near-certain implied probability on the 22°C outcome because live observations and model consensus show little deviation potential by day's end. A realistic challenge would require an unexpected late surge above 22°C from localized heating or a forecast bust confirmed by official station readings, though current atmospheric conditions make such shifts unlikely.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Amsterdam on August 11?
Highest temperature in Amsterdam on August 11?
22°C 100.0%
18°C or below <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$76,603 Vol.
$76,603 Vol.
Aug 11, 2026
18°C or below
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
Yes
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C or higher
No
22°C 100.0%
18°C or below <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$76,603 Vol.
$76,603 Vol.
Aug 11, 2026
18°C or below
$1,505 Vol.
No
19°C
$2,113 Vol.
No
20°C
$12,049 Vol.
No
21°C
$10,496 Vol.
No
22°C
$17,381 Vol.
Yes
23°C
$14,166 Vol.
No
24°C
$8,325 Vol.
No
25°C
$5,501 Vol.
No
26°C
$2,756 Vol.
No
27°C
$1,412 Vol.
No
28°C or higher
$900 Vol.
No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from agencies such as the UK Met Office and KNMI project a daytime maximum of 22°C for Amsterdam on August 11, 2026, under sunny to partly cloudy skies, light northeasterly winds, and negligible precipitation risk. This aligns closely with mid-August climatology, where average highs near 22°C reflect typical North Sea moderation and stable high-pressure patterns. Traders have consolidated near-certain implied probability on the 22°C outcome because live observations and model consensus show little deviation potential by day's end. A realistic challenge would require an unexpected late surge above 22°C from localized heating or a forecast bust confirmed by official station readings, though current atmospheric conditions make such shifts unlikely.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 9, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
Volume
$76,603End Date
Aug 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 9, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from agencies such as the UK Met Office and KNMI project a daytime maximum of 22°C for Amsterdam on August 11, 2026, under sunny to partly cloudy skies, light northeasterly winds, and negligible precipitation risk. This aligns closely with mid-August climatology, where average highs near 22°C reflect typical North Sea moderation and stable high-pressure patterns. Traders have consolidated near-certain implied probability on the 22°C outcome because live observations and model consensus show little deviation potential by day's end. A realistic challenge would require an unexpected late surge above 22°C from localized heating or a forecast bust confirmed by official station readings, though current atmospheric conditions make such shifts unlikely.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$76,603End Date
Aug 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 9, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Official forecasts from agencies such as the UK Met Office and KNMI project a daytime maximum of 22°C for Amsterdam on August 11, 2026, under sunny to partly cloudy skies, light northeasterly winds, and negligible precipitation risk. This aligns closely with mid-August climatology, where average highs near 22°C reflect typical North Sea moderation and stable high-pressure patterns. Traders have consolidated near-certain implied probability on the 22°C outcome because live observations and model consensus show little deviation potential by day's end. A realistic challenge would require an unexpected late surge above 22°C from localized heating or a forecast bust confirmed by official station readings, though current atmospheric conditions make such shifts unlikely.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions