The market's near-certain implied probability on a 23°C maximum reflects the tight consensus across KNMI, ECMWF, and GFS model runs, which consistently project a daytime peak at that level under stable high-pressure conditions and light winds typical for mid-August in the Netherlands. Current observational trends from Schiphol and De Bilt stations align with this guidance, showing gradual warming without exceeding the threshold, consistent with the climatological average high near 22°C. Resolution hinges on the official final reading, so any late-day advection of cooler marine air or measurement timing at the reference station remains the only realistic variable that could shift the exact outcome before close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Amsterdam on August 10?
Highest temperature in Amsterdam on August 10?
23°C 100.0%
19°C or below <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$45,000 Vol.
$45,000 Vol.
Aug 10, 2026
19°C or below
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
Yes
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C or higher
No
23°C 100.0%
19°C or below <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$45,000 Vol.
$45,000 Vol.
Aug 10, 2026
19°C or below
$1,556 Vol.
No
20°C
$1,160 Vol.
No
21°C
$1,771 Vol.
No
22°C
$7,185 Vol.
No
23°C
$14,267 Vol.
Yes
24°C
$7,924 Vol.
No
25°C
$5,830 Vol.
No
26°C
$2,917 Vol.
No
27°C
$1,122 Vol.
No
28°C
$721 Vol.
No
29°C or higher
$546 Vol.
No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The market's near-certain implied probability on a 23°C maximum reflects the tight consensus across KNMI, ECMWF, and GFS model runs, which consistently project a daytime peak at that level under stable high-pressure conditions and light winds typical for mid-August in the Netherlands. Current observational trends from Schiphol and De Bilt stations align with this guidance, showing gradual warming without exceeding the threshold, consistent with the climatological average high near 22°C. Resolution hinges on the official final reading, so any late-day advection of cooler marine air or measurement timing at the reference station remains the only realistic variable that could shift the exact outcome before close.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 8, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
Volume
$45,000End Date
Aug 10, 2026Market Opened
Aug 8, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The market's near-certain implied probability on a 23°C maximum reflects the tight consensus across KNMI, ECMWF, and GFS model runs, which consistently project a daytime peak at that level under stable high-pressure conditions and light winds typical for mid-August in the Netherlands. Current observational trends from Schiphol and De Bilt stations align with this guidance, showing gradual warming without exceeding the threshold, consistent with the climatological average high near 22°C. Resolution hinges on the official final reading, so any late-day advection of cooler marine air or measurement timing at the reference station remains the only realistic variable that could shift the exact outcome before close.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$45,000End Date
Aug 10, 2026Market Opened
Aug 8, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
The market's near-certain implied probability on a 23°C maximum reflects the tight consensus across KNMI, ECMWF, and GFS model runs, which consistently project a daytime peak at that level under stable high-pressure conditions and light winds typical for mid-August in the Netherlands. Current observational trends from Schiphol and De Bilt stations align with this guidance, showing gradual warming without exceeding the threshold, consistent with the climatological average high near 22°C. Resolution hinges on the official final reading, so any late-day advection of cooler marine air or measurement timing at the reference station remains the only realistic variable that could shift the exact outcome before close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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