Google's rapid Gemini 3.x iteration cadence, including recent 3.7 Flash and 3.8 Flash releases emphasizing agentic workflows and multi-step reasoning, underpins trader consensus that a Gemini variant will reach at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam by year-end. Current no-tools leaderboards show top Gemini models at 45-48%, trailing Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 near 59-65% on the expert-curated 2,500-question benchmark spanning advanced mathematics, physics, and multimodal tasks. Continued pre-training for Gemini 4, expected later in 2026, plus targeted Flash updates for calibration and error reduction represent key swing factors. Scores have climbed steadily since the benchmark’s 2025 launch, but saturation remains distant, leaving room for competitive positioning shifts before December 31 resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$73,840 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
50%+
82%
55%+
32%
60%+
23%
65%+
12%
70%+
4%
$73,840 Vol.
50%+
$29,520 Vol.
82%
55%+
$21,873 Vol.
32%
60%+
$12,956 Vol.
23%
65%+
$5,134 Vol.
12%
70%+
$4,358 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Google Gemini model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Google's rapid Gemini 3.x iteration cadence, including recent 3.7 Flash and 3.8 Flash releases emphasizing agentic workflows and multi-step reasoning, underpins trader consensus that a Gemini variant will reach at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam by year-end. Current no-tools leaderboards show top Gemini models at 45-48%, trailing Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 near 59-65% on the expert-curated 2,500-question benchmark spanning advanced mathematics, physics, and multimodal tasks. Continued pre-training for Gemini 4, expected later in 2026, plus targeted Flash updates for calibration and error reduction represent key swing factors. Scores have climbed steadily since the benchmark’s 2025 launch, but saturation remains distant, leaving room for competitive positioning shifts before December 31 resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Google Gemini model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Market Opened: Jul 23, 2026, 6:56 PM ET
Volume
$73,840End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 6:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Google Gemini model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Google's rapid Gemini 3.x iteration cadence, including recent 3.7 Flash and 3.8 Flash releases emphasizing agentic workflows and multi-step reasoning, underpins trader consensus that a Gemini variant will reach at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam by year-end. Current no-tools leaderboards show top Gemini models at 45-48%, trailing Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 near 59-65% on the expert-curated 2,500-question benchmark spanning advanced mathematics, physics, and multimodal tasks. Continued pre-training for Gemini 4, expected later in 2026, plus targeted Flash updates for calibration and error reduction represent key swing factors. Scores have climbed steadily since the benchmark’s 2025 launch, but saturation remains distant, leaving room for competitive positioning shifts before December 31 resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Google Gemini model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$73,840End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 6:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Google's rapid Gemini 3.x iteration cadence, including recent 3.7 Flash and 3.8 Flash releases emphasizing agentic workflows and multi-step reasoning, underpins trader consensus that a Gemini variant will reach at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam by year-end. Current no-tools leaderboards show top Gemini models at 45-48%, trailing Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 near 59-65% on the expert-curated 2,500-question benchmark spanning advanced mathematics, physics, and multimodal tasks. Continued pre-training for Gemini 4, expected later in 2026, plus targeted Flash updates for calibration and error reduction represent key swing factors. Scores have climbed steadily since the benchmark’s 2025 launch, but saturation remains distant, leaving room for competitive positioning shifts before December 31 resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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