Recent wildfire smoke from Canadian fires has driven elevated PM2.5 levels and AQI readings of 150–200+ (unhealthy to very unhealthy) across the New York–New Jersey region, including MetLife Stadium, with a heat dome limiting dispersion. Official EPA AirNow and NWS monitoring show current surface impacts from fine particulates, though models indicate clearing winds and Saturday rain could reduce concentrations before the July 19 final. The open-air venue makes peak AQI during the match sensitive to short-term transport and boundary-layer mixing; historical analogs for Northeast smoke events show rapid day-to-day variability. Traders focus on the latest NOAA and Environment Canada plume forecasts plus real-time AQI updates, which carry the greatest potential to shift implied probabilities on the highest recorded index.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest Air Quality Index at the stadium during the World Cup Final?
Highest Air Quality Index at the stadium during the World Cup Final?
$6,414 Vol.
Jul 19, 2026
60+
No
90+
No
120+
No
150+
No
180+
No
210+
No
$6,414 Vol.
60+
$79 Vol.
No
90+
$1,607 Vol.
No
120+
$2,459 Vol.
No
150+
$543 Vol.
No
180+
$1,384 Vol.
No
210+
$343 Vol.
No
The World Cup Final match between Spain and Argentina is expected to be played at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey, beginning at 3:00PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the highest PM2.5 Air Quality Index recorded in East Rutherford, New Jersey, between the opening kickoff and the end of gameplay in the World Cup Final, including any potential overtime and penalty kicks that may determine the winner of the World Cup is at least equal or higher than the listed figure. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution source will be the Current Air Quality figure found at https://www.airnow.gov/?city=East%20Rutherford&state=NJ&country=USA. In the event of uncertainty, this market will resolve based on the hourly figures published for the Union City High School monitor, which can be found here: https://gispub.epa.gov/airnow/?contours=none&monitors=ozonepm&xmin=-8250536.396073639&xmax=-8234197.981277704&ymin=4972953.424285053&ymax=4981084.413168878.
In the event that no World Cup Final is held by July 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "No".
If the figures or the resolution source are unavailable for the entirety of the game, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Recent wildfire smoke from Canadian fires has driven elevated PM2.5 levels and AQI readings of 150–200+ (unhealthy to very unhealthy) across the New York–New Jersey region, including MetLife Stadium, with a heat dome limiting dispersion. Official EPA AirNow and NWS monitoring show current surface impacts from fine particulates, though models indicate clearing winds and Saturday rain could reduce concentrations before the July 19 final. The open-air venue makes peak AQI during the match sensitive to short-term transport and boundary-layer mixing; historical analogs for Northeast smoke events show rapid day-to-day variability. Traders focus on the latest NOAA and Environment Canada plume forecasts plus real-time AQI updates, which carry the greatest potential to shift implied probabilities on the highest recorded index.
The World Cup Final match between Spain and Argentina is expected to be played at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey, beginning at 3:00PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the highest PM2.5 Air Quality Index recorded in East Rutherford, New Jersey, between the opening kickoff and the end of gameplay in the World Cup Final, including any potential overtime and penalty kicks that may determine the winner of the World Cup is at least equal or higher than the listed figure. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution source will be the Current Air Quality figure found at https://www.airnow.gov/?city=East%20Rutherford&state=NJ&country=USA. In the event of uncertainty, this market will resolve based on the hourly figures published for the Union City High School monitor, which can be found here: https://gispub.epa.gov/airnow/?contours=none&monitors=ozonepm&xmin=-8250536.396073639&xmax=-8234197.981277704&ymin=4972953.424285053&ymax=4981084.413168878.
In the event that no World Cup Final is held by July 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "No".
If the figures or the resolution source are unavailable for the entirety of the game, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the highest PM2.5 Air Quality Index recorded in East Rutherford, New Jersey, between the opening kickoff and the end of gameplay in the World Cup Final, including any potential overtime and penalty kicks that may determine the winner of the World Cup is at least equal or higher than the listed figure. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution source will be the Current Air Quality figure found at https://www.airnow.gov/?city=East%20Rutherford&state=NJ&country=USA. In the event of uncertainty, this market will resolve based on the hourly figures published for the Union City High School monitor, which can be found here: https://gispub.epa.gov/airnow/?contours=none&monitors=ozonepm&xmin=-8250536.396073639&xmax=-8234197.981277704&ymin=4972953.424285053&ymax=4981084.413168878.
In the event that no World Cup Final is held by July 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "No".
If the figures or the resolution source are unavailable for the entirety of the game, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Market Opened: Jul 17, 2026, 12:53 PM ET
Volume
$6,414End Date
Jul 19, 2026Market Opened
Jul 17, 2026, 12:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
The World Cup Final match between Spain and Argentina is expected to be played at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey, beginning at 3:00PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the highest PM2.5 Air Quality Index recorded in East Rutherford, New Jersey, between the opening kickoff and the end of gameplay in the World Cup Final, including any potential overtime and penalty kicks that may determine the winner of the World Cup is at least equal or higher than the listed figure. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution source will be the Current Air Quality figure found at https://www.airnow.gov/?city=East%20Rutherford&state=NJ&country=USA. In the event of uncertainty, this market will resolve based on the hourly figures published for the Union City High School monitor, which can be found here: https://gispub.epa.gov/airnow/?contours=none&monitors=ozonepm&xmin=-8250536.396073639&xmax=-8234197.981277704&ymin=4972953.424285053&ymax=4981084.413168878.
In the event that no World Cup Final is held by July 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "No".
If the figures or the resolution source are unavailable for the entirety of the game, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Recent wildfire smoke from Canadian fires has driven elevated PM2.5 levels and AQI readings of 150–200+ (unhealthy to very unhealthy) across the New York–New Jersey region, including MetLife Stadium, with a heat dome limiting dispersion. Official EPA AirNow and NWS monitoring show current surface impacts from fine particulates, though models indicate clearing winds and Saturday rain could reduce concentrations before the July 19 final. The open-air venue makes peak AQI during the match sensitive to short-term transport and boundary-layer mixing; historical analogs for Northeast smoke events show rapid day-to-day variability. Traders focus on the latest NOAA and Environment Canada plume forecasts plus real-time AQI updates, which carry the greatest potential to shift implied probabilities on the highest recorded index.
The World Cup Final match between Spain and Argentina is expected to be played at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey, beginning at 3:00PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the highest PM2.5 Air Quality Index recorded in East Rutherford, New Jersey, between the opening kickoff and the end of gameplay in the World Cup Final, including any potential overtime and penalty kicks that may determine the winner of the World Cup is at least equal or higher than the listed figure. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution source will be the Current Air Quality figure found at https://www.airnow.gov/?city=East%20Rutherford&state=NJ&country=USA. In the event of uncertainty, this market will resolve based on the hourly figures published for the Union City High School monitor, which can be found here: https://gispub.epa.gov/airnow/?contours=none&monitors=ozonepm&xmin=-8250536.396073639&xmax=-8234197.981277704&ymin=4972953.424285053&ymax=4981084.413168878.
In the event that no World Cup Final is held by July 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "No".
If the figures or the resolution source are unavailable for the entirety of the game, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the highest PM2.5 Air Quality Index recorded in East Rutherford, New Jersey, between the opening kickoff and the end of gameplay in the World Cup Final, including any potential overtime and penalty kicks that may determine the winner of the World Cup is at least equal or higher than the listed figure. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution source will be the Current Air Quality figure found at https://www.airnow.gov/?city=East%20Rutherford&state=NJ&country=USA. In the event of uncertainty, this market will resolve based on the hourly figures published for the Union City High School monitor, which can be found here: https://gispub.epa.gov/airnow/?contours=none&monitors=ozonepm&xmin=-8250536.396073639&xmax=-8234197.981277704&ymin=4972953.424285053&ymax=4981084.413168878.
In the event that no World Cup Final is held by July 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "No".
If the figures or the resolution source are unavailable for the entirety of the game, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$6,414End Date
Jul 19, 2026Market Opened
Jul 17, 2026, 12:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Recent wildfire smoke from Canadian fires has driven elevated PM2.5 levels and AQI readings of 150–200+ (unhealthy to very unhealthy) across the New York–New Jersey region, including MetLife Stadium, with a heat dome limiting dispersion. Official EPA AirNow and NWS monitoring show current surface impacts from fine particulates, though models indicate clearing winds and Saturday rain could reduce concentrations before the July 19 final. The open-air venue makes peak AQI during the match sensitive to short-term transport and boundary-layer mixing; historical analogs for Northeast smoke events show rapid day-to-day variability. Traders focus on the latest NOAA and Environment Canada plume forecasts plus real-time AQI updates, which carry the greatest potential to shift implied probabilities on the highest recorded index.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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