The December 2026 presidential election in Guinea-Bissau follows the November 2025 coup that annulled prior results and installed a military-led transitional government under Major-General Horta Inta-a Na Man. With the vote still months away, traders assign modest probabilities across a fragmented field, reflecting uncertainty over candidate eligibility, party alliances, and institutional reforms during the transition period. Fernando Dias da Costa leads as the top-listed contender due to his strong showing in the disrupted 2025 contest and backing from major opposition networks, while other aspirants such as Siga Batista and Mamadu Iaia Djaló draw limited support tied to regional bases or smaller platforms. Consolidation behind one outcome could hinge on upcoming transitional council decisions, ECOWAS-mediated stabilization efforts, or shifts in voter priorities toward security and economic continuity in a nation with a history of electoral disputes and military interventions.