Guinea-Bissau's December 6, 2026, presidential election occurs under a military-led transitional government installed after the November 2025 coup that annulled disputed results between then-incumbent Umaro Sissoco Embaló and challenger Fernando Dias da Costa. The fragmented field, with Dias da Costa and Embaló holding the narrowest leads at 16.2% and 14.1% respectively amid over a dozen candidates below 6%, stems from the exclusion of major parties like PAIGC in prior balloting, the transitional charter barring junta leader Horta Inta-A Na Man from running, and opposition rejection of an August constitutional referendum that would shift toward a stronger presidential system. Ongoing ECOWAS mediation, recent opposition detentions, and the country's repeated cycles of coups and annulled votes sustain high uncertainty, as traders weigh potential alliances, procedural disputes, and military oversight that could alter candidate viability before polling.