John Hart secured the Greater Wellington Regional Council Wairarapa constituency seat in the 21 August 2026 by-election, triggered by the death of incumbent Adrienne Staples. Under the single transferable vote system, Hart advanced through preference distributions to reach the required quota ahead of Alistair Plimmer, Colin Olds, Michael Birch and other candidates. His community and catchment group experience, combined with prior local governance roles, supported strong second and later preferences that consolidated support. Official results confirmed on 25 August align with the market's 99.6% pricing for Hart. Late procedural challenges or recount anomalies remain theoretically possible but lack supporting evidence at this stage.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedGreater Wellington Wairarapa By-Election Winner
Greater Wellington Wairarapa By-Election Winner
John Hart 100.0%
Alistair Plimmer 3.3%
Michael Birch 1.8%
Colin Olds 1.8%
$4,750 Vol.
$4,750 Vol.
Aug 20, 2026
Michael Birch
No
Amber Craig
No
Jill Greathead
No
John Hart
Yes
Colin Olds
No
Alistair Plimmer
No
John Hart 100.0%
Alistair Plimmer 3.3%
Michael Birch 1.8%
Colin Olds 1.8%
$4,750 Vol.
$4,750 Vol.
Aug 20, 2026
Michael Birch
$254 Vol.
No
Amber Craig
$360 Vol.
No
Jill Greathead
$266 Vol.
No
John Hart
$484 Vol.
Yes
Colin Olds
$380 Vol.
No
Alistair Plimmer
$3,006 Vol.
No
A by-election for the Wairarapa constituency of the Greater Wellington Regional Council in New Zealand is currently scheduled to be held on on August 21, 2026, following the death of incumbent councillor Adrienne Staples.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Wairarapa constituency by-election for the Greater Wellington Regional Council.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by the Greater Wellington Regional Council (https://www.gw.govt.nz/).John Hart secured the Greater Wellington Regional Council Wairarapa constituency seat in the 21 August 2026 by-election, triggered by the death of incumbent Adrienne Staples. Under the single transferable vote system, Hart advanced through preference distributions to reach the required quota ahead of Alistair Plimmer, Colin Olds, Michael Birch and other candidates. His community and catchment group experience, combined with prior local governance roles, supported strong second and later preferences that consolidated support. Official results confirmed on 25 August align with the market's 99.6% pricing for Hart. Late procedural challenges or recount anomalies remain theoretically possible but lack supporting evidence at this stage.
A by-election for the Wairarapa constituency of the Greater Wellington Regional Council in New Zealand is currently scheduled to be held on on August 21, 2026, following the death of incumbent councillor Adrienne Staples.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Wairarapa constituency by-election for the Greater Wellington Regional Council.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by the Greater Wellington Regional Council (https://www.gw.govt.nz/).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Wairarapa constituency by-election for the Greater Wellington Regional Council.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by the Greater Wellington Regional Council (https://www.gw.govt.nz/).
Market Opened: Aug 11, 2026, 8:16 AM ET
Volume
$4,750End Date
Aug 21, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 8:16 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
A by-election for the Wairarapa constituency of the Greater Wellington Regional Council in New Zealand is currently scheduled to be held on on August 21, 2026, following the death of incumbent councillor Adrienne Staples.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Wairarapa constituency by-election for the Greater Wellington Regional Council.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by the Greater Wellington Regional Council (https://www.gw.govt.nz/).John Hart secured the Greater Wellington Regional Council Wairarapa constituency seat in the 21 August 2026 by-election, triggered by the death of incumbent Adrienne Staples. Under the single transferable vote system, Hart advanced through preference distributions to reach the required quota ahead of Alistair Plimmer, Colin Olds, Michael Birch and other candidates. His community and catchment group experience, combined with prior local governance roles, supported strong second and later preferences that consolidated support. Official results confirmed on 25 August align with the market's 99.6% pricing for Hart. Late procedural challenges or recount anomalies remain theoretically possible but lack supporting evidence at this stage.
A by-election for the Wairarapa constituency of the Greater Wellington Regional Council in New Zealand is currently scheduled to be held on on August 21, 2026, following the death of incumbent councillor Adrienne Staples.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Wairarapa constituency by-election for the Greater Wellington Regional Council.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by the Greater Wellington Regional Council (https://www.gw.govt.nz/).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Wairarapa constituency by-election for the Greater Wellington Regional Council.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by the Greater Wellington Regional Council (https://www.gw.govt.nz/).
Volume
$4,750End Date
Aug 21, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 8:16 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
John Hart secured the Greater Wellington Regional Council Wairarapa constituency seat in the 21 August 2026 by-election, triggered by the death of incumbent Adrienne Staples. Under the single transferable vote system, Hart advanced through preference distributions to reach the required quota ahead of Alistair Plimmer, Colin Olds, Michael Birch and other candidates. His community and catchment group experience, combined with prior local governance roles, supported strong second and later preferences that consolidated support. Official results confirmed on 25 August align with the market's 99.6% pricing for Hart. Late procedural challenges or recount anomalies remain theoretically possible but lack supporting evidence at this stage.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRelated
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