Friedrich Merz’s position as German chancellor has come under sustained pressure since mid-2026 amid a series of state election defeats for his CDU, including the party’s worst postwar results in Saxony-Anhalt, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, and Berlin, where it fell below the 5% threshold in one contest. National polls show the AfD leading at around 28-29% while the CDU/CSU sits near 20%, and Merz’s personal approval has dropped to roughly 14%. These outcomes have fueled coalition strains with the SPD over tax and budget measures, alongside internal CDU discussion of a possible Kanzlertausch, though state premiers and party leaders have publicly backed him and no formal challenge has emerged. Merz continues to pursue reforms on taxes, pensions, and bureaucracy while emphasizing coalition stability. The next state elections are not scheduled until 2027, but ongoing budget disputes and AfD gains remain key variables that could influence coalition durability or leadership dynamics.